TL;DR

US-EU near 15% tariff deal; Alphabet, Tesla report Q2; oil, silver rally on supply, risk.

Highlights

• US and EU are close to a 15% tariff deal, but Trump’s approval is pending; EU preparing $100B in retaliatory tariffs if talks fail 1.
• US to lift Nvidia H20 chip export curbs to China in exchange for rare-earth magnets, aiming to secure supply chains 2.
• Trump administration unveils AI plan loosening oversight, promoting open-source models, and accelerating data-center buildout 4.
• Alphabet and Tesla report Q2 earnings after the bell; options markets price in 5–7% post-earnings swings 8.
• US existing home sales fell 2.7% in June to a nine-month low as record prices and high mortgage rates weigh; Trump hints at capital-gains tax cuts for home sales 3.
• Meme-stock activity surges: Kohl’s , GoPro , and Krispy Kreme see outsized moves on retail momentum and short squeezes 9.
• Freeport-McMoRan beats Q2 estimates on higher copper/gold prices but warns US tariffs could raise costs; awaits clarity on 50% copper import tariff in August 12.
• US crude inventories drop 3.2 million barrels; gasoline stocks also fall as demand and exports remain strong 5.
• Silver hits $39.50/oz, highest since 2011, on tariff concerns and ETF inflows; gold and copper also firm 1612.
• Goldman Sachs and BNY Mellon launch tokenized money-market fund platform for institutional clients, enabling 24/7 settlement 6.
• Fiserv beats Q2 but trims 2025 sales outlook, sending shares down 18%; Amphenol raises guidance after strong Q2 1819.
• Iran seizes ship and detains crew in Gulf of Oman, escalating regional tensions and adding to oil market risk 15.

Commentary

US equity markets are trading with a cautious bid as traders weigh progress on the US-EU tariff front. While news of a potential 15% compromise tariff has eased immediate fears of a trade escalation, the lack of a final agreement and the threat of $100B in EU counter-tariffs keep headline risk elevated ahead of the August 1 deadline 1. Sectors with heavy trans-Atlantic exposure—autos, aerospace, and industrials—remain sensitive to any updates 1.

Tech is in focus with the Trump administration’s AI deregulation push and reciprocal US-China moves on Nvidia chip exports for rare-earth magnets 24. These steps signal a tactical easing in tech tensions and could benefit US chipmakers and AI infrastructure providers 24. However, AMD ’s comments on the 5–20% premium for US-made TSMC chips highlight ongoing cost pressures 10. After the bell, Alphabet and Tesla earnings will be key volatility catalysts, with investors focused on AI/data-center spending and Tesla’s robotaxi initiatives 811.

Commodities are supported by both supply and geopolitical factors. Oil prices are firm following a larger-than-expected draw in US crude inventories and continued strong product demand 5. Silver’s rally to 14-year highs reflects both safe-haven and tariff-driven flows 16. Freeport-McMoRan ’s results underscore solid copper fundamentals but also highlight tariff-related cost risks and the need for supply-chain flexibility 12. Iran’s seizure of a ship in the Gulf of Oman adds a geopolitical layer to the energy trade 15.

In financials, Goldman Sachs and BNY Mellon ’s launch of a tokenized money-market fund platform marks a notable step in institutional adoption of blockchain for cash management 6. Meanwhile, meme-stock activity remains elevated, with sharp moves in names like Kohl’s and GoPro driven by retail trading dynamics rather than fundamentals 9. Fiserv ’s trimmed outlook and Amphenol ’s raised guidance further illustrate the divergence in corporate results 1819.

Traders should watch for late-session swings tied to mega-cap tech earnings, fresh trade headlines, and any escalation in Middle East tensions 815. Cross-asset volatility remains elevated, especially in sectors exposed to policy shifts and supply chain disruptions 120.