TL;DR

Iran nuclear risk persists post-strikes; FedEx outlook weak; Nasdaq 100 hits record on ceasefire.

Highlights

• IAEA lost track of ~900 pounds of Iranian enriched uranium after U.S. strikes; Iran has not allowed verification 1.
• U.S. intelligence assesses strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites will delay its program by only 3–6 months; uranium was moved before attacks 2.
• Israel intercepted over 15 Iranian drones overnight; no Israeli casualties or damage reported 4.
• Netanyahu declared “historic victory” over Iran after 12 days of conflict 13; Trump pressed Israel to fully observe the new ceasefire 14.
• BRICS condemned U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran as violations of international law, urging restraint 15.
• UK to buy 12 F-35A jets, restoring airborne nuclear delivery capability and signaling a major defense upgrade 5.
• NATO leaders met in The Hague, with plans to raise defense spending targets up to 5% of GDP by 2035 6.
• Senate Republicans introduced the “GOLDEN DOME” Act for a nationwide U.S. missile and drone defense network 11.
• FedEx beat Q4 earnings estimates but withdrew its full-year outlook on weak demand and tariff concerns; shares fell ~5% after hours 7.
• Nasdaq 100 rose 1.5% to a record close, supported by improved risk sentiment and ceasefire news 8.
• California set for July 1 gas tax and clean-fuel rule hikes, potentially pushing pump prices higher; no delay announced 9.
• Senate panel opened debate on new U.S. crypto market rules, with bipartisan efforts to clarify oversight 10.

Commentary

Geopolitical risk remains elevated as the Iran-Israel conflict transitions into a fragile ceasefire. Despite claims of strategic success, U.S. intelligence and IAEA reports indicate Iran’s nuclear program is only modestly delayed 12, with a significant quantity of enriched uranium now unaccounted for 1. The lack of IAEA access, continued drone activity 4, and tense U.S.-Israel communications 14 suggest the situation remains volatile, keeping the Middle East risk premium in focus for energy and defense markets.

Global defense spending is set to rise, with the UK restoring its airborne nuclear capability via F-35A purchases 5 and NATO moving toward a higher spending target 6. U.S. lawmakers are advancing the GOLDEN DOME missile defense initiative 11, which could drive further investment in U.S. defense and aerospace equities. The BRICS condemnation of Western strikes 15 highlights persistent geopolitical divides, but immediate market impact appears limited.

On the macro side, U.S. equities closed strong, with the Nasdaq 100 reaching a new record as traders responded positively to ceasefire developments 8. However, FedEx ’s withdrawal of its full-year outlook, citing weak demand and tariff pressures, signals caution for the broader economic outlook and may affect sentiment in logistics, industrial, and consumer sectors 7.

Energy traders should monitor California’s upcoming fuel tax and regulatory hikes, which could drive regional price volatility and impact refiners’ margins 9. Crypto markets may see increased volatility as the Senate moves toward clarifying U.S. regulatory frameworks, with bipartisan proposals now under discussion 10.