TL;DR

US jobs beat, Nvidia lifts S&P 500, Trump tax bill passes; Fed cut odds drop, AI leads.

Highlights

• US June nonfarm payrolls rose by 147,000 (vs. 110k est.), unemployment fell to 4.1%, wage growth moderated; July Fed rate cut odds drop to 5%1.
• Nvidia approaches $4T market cap, driving S&P 500 to new highs; strong options activity signals continued AI optimism2.
• House passes Trump’s $4.5T tax and spending bill, extending 2017 tax cuts and reducing social program funding; CBO sees $3.3T deficit increase over 10 years3.
• US trade deficit widened 19% in May to $71.5B on export weakness, especially in industrial supplies and capital goods8.
• US Treasury targets mid-July for stablecoin law, estimating up to $2T in new Treasury demand; increased T-bill issuance expected7.
• Mortgage rates fall to three-month lows (30-year avg. 6.67%), boosting refinancing but leaving purchase demand flat20.
• CoreWeave installs first Nvidia Blackwell Ultra AI server; CoreWeave , Dell , and Nvidia shares all gain11.
• Robinhood shares slip after OpenAI disavows “stock tokens”; legal and reputational risks highlighted9.
• US Treasury sanctions Iranian oil network and Hezbollah finance arm; State Dept. warns of possible Iran-linked attacks for July 456.
• UPS offers first-ever driver buyouts, sparking Teamsters contract dispute amid company restructuring12.
• Russia’s Gazprom gas exports to Europe hit multi-decade lows; oil and gas revenues drop 34% YoY16.
• Putin tells Trump Russia remains firm on Ukraine objectives but open to talks; Zelensky signals readiness for direct talks with Putin413.

Commentary

US equities remained firm into the holiday, supported by stronger-than-expected payrolls and ongoing AI sector momentum. While June’s job gains beat forecasts and unemployment edged lower, wage growth moderated and the average workweek shortened1. This mix has led markets to sharply reduce the odds of a July Fed rate cut, with Treasury yields firming and rate-sensitive sectors seeing some repricing1.

Nvidia ’s continued surge, alongside the deployment of its new Blackwell Ultra AI server by CoreWeave , kept the AI trade at the forefront, driving the S&P 500 to new highs211. Options flows and related hardware gains (Dell , CoreWeave ) underscore persistent investor appetite for AI infrastructure11. Meanwhile, Apple ’s reported interest in its own developer cloud service signals potential shifts in the cloud and chip landscape, though details remain limited10.

On the policy front, the House passage of Trump’s $4.5T tax and spending bill signals a major fiscal expansion, with deficit projections rising and Treasury preparing for increased bill issuance3. Treasury Secretary Bessent’s push for stablecoin legislation could channel significant new demand into Treasuries, partially offsetting the supply increase7. However, the widening trade deficit and subdued export demand highlight ongoing macro headwinds8.

Mortgage rates have eased to three-month lows, leading to a jump in refinancing activity, but home purchase demand remains muted as buyers await deeper rate cuts20. In the financial sector, Robinhood ’s tokenization push met resistance as OpenAI disavowed the “stock tokens,” raising legal and reputational questions for platforms seeking to bridge crypto and traditional assets9.

Geopolitical risks remain in focus. The US imposed new sanctions targeting Iranian oil and Hezbollah financing, and authorities are on alert for possible Iran-linked attacks during the July 4 holiday56. Russia’s energy revenue slump and diplomatic signals on Ukraine add to global uncertainty, though direct market impact remains limited for now16413. Labor and supply chain issues persist, highlighted by UPS ’s buyout offer and resulting union dispute12.