TL;DR

Senate advances $3.8T tax bill, July 9 tariff risk looms, S&P 500 hits record highs.

Highlights

• Senate advanced Trump’s $3.8T tax-and-spending bill, aiming to make Trump-era tax cuts permanent, cut Medicaid/SNAP, repeal green-energy credits, and add new coal breaks; final Senate vote pending after amendment process 110.
• Senate GOP plan would immediately end federal renewable energy credits, impose 2028 excise tax on new wind/solar projects, and accelerate phase-out of clean-energy manufacturing credits 10.
• Trump reaffirmed July 9 tariff deadline; higher tariffs set to resume for countries without trade deals, with ongoing talks involving EU, Japan, and South Korea 2.
• Trump endorsed Senate plan for up to 500% tariffs on countries buying Russian energy (notably China, India); Senate to consider in July 11.
• S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 posted record highs, erasing April’s tariff-driven losses; rebound attributed to tariff pause, trade progress, and Fed rate-cut expectations 9.
• Trump pledged to appoint a Fed chair who will cut rates to 1–2%, increasing political focus on Fed policy 8.
• Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang began $865M stock sale under 10b5-1 plan; broader Nvidia insider selling continues as stock remains at record highs 7.
• Tesla nears completion of Texas LFP battery plant, strengthening domestic EV supply chain and benefiting from tariffs on Chinese competitors 15.
• Russia launched largest airstrike on Ukraine since 2022; NATO air defenses on alert; U.S. and Russia maintain intelligence hotline 313.
• Iran barred IAEA chief, blocked nuclear site cameras; IAEA warns Iran could resume uranium enrichment within months 512.
• SEC cleared REX-Osprey Solana and Ethereum staking ETFs; spot Bitcoin ETFs hit record inflows; MicroStrategy nears S&P 500 inclusion 61718.
• Israel ordered mass evacuation in northern Gaza ahead of new offensive; ceasefire talks ongoing amid worsening humanitarian conditions 4.

Commentary

US markets face a busy week as fiscal, trade, and geopolitical headlines converge. The Senate’s advancement of a $3.8T tax-and-spending bill, which would make expiring Trump-era tax cuts permanent while slashing Medicaid, SNAP, and green-energy incentives, signals a potential shift in sector dynamics 110. The immediate repeal of renewable energy credits and the introduction of new taxes on wind and solar could pressure clean energy equities and project pipelines, while coal and traditional energy may benefit 10. The bill’s path remains uncertain, with Senate amendments and a House revisit still ahead 1.

Trade policy remains a key risk: Trump’s insistence that the July 9 tariff deadline will not be extended puts pressure on ongoing negotiations with major partners 2. The prospect of higher tariffs for non-compliant countries could trigger volatility in global equities, FX, and supply chain-exposed sectors 2. Additionally, Trump’s endorsement of up to 500% tariffs on buyers of Russian energy—targeting China and India—raises the stakes for commodity and emerging market flows 11.

Equity markets have shown resilience, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 hitting new highs on optimism around a tariff pause and possible Fed rate cuts 9. However, Trump’s public commitment to installing a dovish Fed chair if re-elected adds uncertainty to the rates outlook and could impact the dollar and Treasuries if markets begin to price in more aggressive easing 8. Meanwhile, notable insider selling at Nvidia and Tesla ’s progress on domestic battery production highlight ongoing shifts within tech and industrials 715.

Geopolitical risks remain elevated. Russia’s record airstrike on Ukraine 3, Iran’s nuclear escalation 512, and renewed Israeli operations in Gaza 4 all have the potential to impact energy prices, defense stocks, and safe-haven assets. In crypto, regulatory progress continues with SEC approval of Solana and Ethereum staking ETFs 6, strong inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs 17, and MicroStrategy nearing S&P 500 inclusion 18, supporting momentum in digital assets.