TL;DR

Trump eyes Fed shakeup; Nvidia hits record; Bitcoin, Coinbase surge on regulatory tailwinds.

Highlights

• • Trump signals intent to replace Fed Chair Powell within months, raising concerns over Fed independence1.
• • Powell says Fed will roll back 2022 crypto curbs, allowing banks broader access to crypto services; stablecoins called "mainstream"320.
• • Nvidia hits record high, regains title as world’s most valuable public company on AI demand2.
• • US crude inventories fall nearly 6 million barrels, extending multi-week draws; refinery utilization at highest since July 20247.
• • US-led strikes severely damage Iran’s nuclear sites; ceasefire holds, but Iran suspends IAEA cooperation as US-Iran talks planned5136.
• • Congress introduces bipartisan bill to bar Chinese and other adversarial AI models from federal use9.
• • China tightens controls on rare-earth industry experts, increasing supply-chain uncertainty for critical minerals8.
• • Senate GOP unveils digital asset framework; Senator Lummis says White House supports crypto bills11.
• • Bitcoin tops $108,000, dominance rises; Coinbase nears record highs after Bernstein raises target to $5101519.
• • NATO sets new 5% GDP defense spending target by 2035, increasing pressure on European budgets10.
• • Shell denies $80B BP takeover talks after speculation moves both stocks12.
• • Bumble jumps up to 26% after announcing 30% workforce cut and raising Q2 outlook16.

Commentary

US markets are digesting a mix of macro, geopolitical, and sector-specific news into the close. Trump ’s public move to replace Fed Chair Powell introduces a new variable for rate expectations and central bank credibility, with traders watching for any signs of accelerated policy shifts or increased political influence at the Fed1. Powell’s testimony suggests no imminent rate cut1, but his comments on scaling back crypto restrictions and recognizing stablecoins as mainstream signal a more open regulatory stance for digital assets320. This, combined with bipartisan momentum in Congress11 and a bullish analyst call, is supporting strong gains in Bitcoin and crypto equities, notably Coinbase 19.

Equities are led by Nvidia , which reclaimed its position as the world’s most valuable company on continued AI optimism and robust demand for its chips2. The tech sector also faces new regulatory headwinds, with Congress moving to block Chinese AI models from federal use9 and China tightening controls over rare-earth industry experts, further complicating supply chains for US hardware and EV manufacturers8.

Energy markets are reacting to another significant draw in US crude and refined product inventories, with refinery utilization at a yearly high and product demand strong7. Despite the bullish supply data, geopolitical risk in the Middle East remains a factor after US-led strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites5. The ceasefire is holding for now, but Iran’s suspension of IAEA cooperation and upcoming US-Iran talks keep the risk premium in play136.

Defense and industrials may see support from NATO ’s new 5% GDP spending target, though the fiscal burden is mainly on European allies10. In corporate news, Shell ’s denial of BP takeover talks highlights ongoing M&A speculation in energy12, while Bumble ’s restructuring and raised outlook triggered a sharp rally, showing that cost-cutting and improved guidance can still drive outsized moves in select names16.

Into the close, traders should monitor for headlines on Fed leadership1, Middle East developments5136, and US-China tech tensions89. Positioning in tech, energy, and crypto remains sensitive to incremental news flow.