TL;DR

Iran restricts nuclear oversight; OPEC+ eyes oil output hike; US-Canada trade talks break down.

Highlights

• Iran halts IAEA access and camera monitoring at nuclear sites, escalating nuclear oversight tensions1.
• OPEC+ expected to approve fourth consecutive 411,000 bpd oil output hike at July 6 meeting; Russia supports2.
• Russia launches record drone and missile attack on Ukraine; Ukraine loses F-16, renews air defense requests3.
• EU prepares 18th sanctions package on Russia, targeting oil imports via third countries and financial sectors4.
• Trump halts US-Canada trade talks, threatens tariffs after Canada imposes digital services tax on US tech firms5.
• China warns against tariff-relief deals that undermine its interests, signaling possible countermeasures6.
• G7 agrees to exempt US firms from parts of 15% global minimum tax; deal still needs OECD/G-20 approval7.
• US lifts Russia-related sanctions blocking Hungary’s Paks-2 nuclear plant, allowing project to resume20.
• OpenAI starts using Google TPUs, reducing reliance on Nvidia and intensifying cloud chip competition15.
• SEC clears first US Solana staking ETF (REX-Osprey), expanding regulated crypto investment products16.
• Ripple and SEC drop appeals, ending years-long XRP lawsuit and removing a key legal overhang17.
• Indonesia and CATL begin construction of $6B EV battery complex, strengthening nickel and battery supply chains14.

Commentary

Geopolitical risk is elevated heading into the week. Iran’s move to bar IAEA oversight further clouds the outlook for Middle East stability and nuclear diplomacy, which could inject volatility into oil and regional markets, especially as OPEC+ prepares for another supply hike12. The cartel’s planned 411,000 bpd increase, now with Russian backing, reflects expectations of robust summer demand, but the combination of tighter EU sanctions on Russian oil and potential Middle East disruptions could keep crude markets sensitive to headlines24.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict remains a major macro overhang. Russia’s record drone and missile barrage, Ukraine’s renewed calls for Western air defense, and the EU’s latest sanctions package all point to persistent conflict risk and potential supply chain impacts, particularly in energy and commodities34. The US move to lift sanctions on Hungary’s Paks-2 nuclear project signals some recalibration in US-EU coordination on Russia policy20.

Trade and regulatory friction are front and center. Trump’s abrupt halt to US-Canada trade talks and tariff threats, in response to Canada’s digital services tax, introduce new uncertainty for North American trade flows and could pressure the Canadian dollar and tech sector equities5. China’s warning against tariff-relief deals highlights ongoing fragility in global trade relations, as the US seeks alternative arrangements with partners6. The G7’s tax compromise averts immediate escalation but leaves global tax harmonization unresolved, with implications for multinationals’ future tax liabilities7.

In tech and crypto, OpenAI ’s shift to Google TPUs from Nvidia signals intensifying competition in AI hardware and cloud infrastructure, which could influence chipmaker and cloud provider valuations15. The SEC’s approval of a Solana staking ETF and the resolution of the Ripple -XRP lawsuit are constructive for regulated crypto investment, likely supporting sentiment and liquidity in digital asset markets1617. Indonesia’s $6B EV battery project with CATL further underscores the ongoing realignment of critical mineral and battery supply chains in Asia14.