TL;DR

S&P 500 rallies on Fed cut bets; Palantir, Axon beat and guide up; CFTC eyes spot crypto trading.

Highlights

• S&P 500 jumped 1.45%, Nasdaq +1.94%, Dow +1.33% as soft jobs data boosted Fed rate-cut bets 515.
• Fed’s Daly signaled more than two rate cuts may be needed if labor market weakens further 3.
• Treasury yields fell; futures now price in ~85% probability of a September Fed cut 515.
• Palantir posted first $1B revenue quarter (+48% y/y), beat estimates, raised 2025 guidance; shares +4–5% after hours 1.
• Axon beat Q2 estimates and raised full-year outlook on strong AI-driven demand; shares +4% post-market 8.
• Vertex beat Q2 but shares -13% post-market as pain-drug candidate failed Phase 2 6.
• Hims & Hers missed revenue for first time since IPO; shares -10% after hours despite profit beat 7.
• MercadoLibre topped revenue forecasts but missed on profit; shares -3% post-market 9.
• CFTC proposed allowing spot crypto trading on futures exchanges, opening public comment period 4.
• Major wildfires in California and Arizona prompted evacuations, closed tourism sites, and strained local resources 12.

Commentary

US equities staged a broad rebound, led by rate-sensitive tech and small caps, after July payrolls came in below expectations and San Francisco Fed President Daly indicated the Fed could cut more than twice if labor softness persists 35. Treasury yields declined, and futures now price in a high probability of a September rate cut, driving risk-on sentiment across asset classes 515.

Earnings reports drove notable after-hours moves. Palantir and Axon both delivered strong quarters, citing robust demand for AI and software, and raised full-year guidance, supporting their post-market gains 18. Conversely, Vertex slumped after a key pain drug failed in Phase 2 6, and Hims & Hers dropped on its first-ever revenue miss, despite solid profit growth 7. MercadoLibre ’s revenue beat but profit miss highlights ongoing cost pressures in high-growth LatAm tech 9.

Regulatory developments were also in focus. The CFTC’s proposal to allow spot crypto trading on futures exchanges could increase institutional participation and liquidity in digital assets, though the process remains in early stages 4.

Wildfires in California and Arizona are disrupting regional economies, closing tourism sites, and straining emergency resources 12. Insurance, utilities, and local travel sectors may see near-term volatility as a result.