TL;DR

Israel-Iran conflict escalates; oil and gold jump; Trump returns to D.C., denies U.S. strikes.

Highlights

• Israel claims to have killed Iran’s new military chief and destroyed a major command center in Tehran517; Iran’s IRGC launches a new, more powerful missile barrage at Israel6.
• Reports of three oil tankers burning near the Strait of Hormuz push Brent crude above $73 as traders assess supply risks7.
• Gold tops $3,400/oz as central banks plan to increase bullion holdings and reduce dollar reserves amid geopolitical tensions818.
• President Trump leaves G7 early, returns to Washington, and warns Americans to evacuate Tehran; White House and Pentagon deny reports of U.S. strikes on Iran but confirm additional defensive deployments to the Middle East234.
• China reportedly evacuates embassy staff from Tehran, highlighting rising foreign security concerns16.
• U.S. equities rebounded Monday but futures slipped overnight as renewed Mideast tensions drive volatility in oil and haven assets20.
• IEA cuts 2025 oil demand outlook, sees China’s consumption peaking in 2027 and a supply surplus by 203013.
• Senate sets a vote today on the bipartisan GENIUS Stablecoin Act, aiming to establish federal oversight of dollar-pegged cryptocurrencies15.
• SoftBank raises $4.8B via a T-Mobile block sale to fund AI investments; T-Mobile shares dip, SoftBank rallies9.
• Nvidia target raised to $200 by Barclays on strong AI chip demand; OpenAI seeks to restructure Microsoft partnership, raising antitrust concerns1411.
• Eli Lilly to acquire Verve Therapeutics for up to $1.3B, expanding into gene editing10.

Commentary

Escalating direct conflict between Israel and Iran is driving risk sentiment and asset flows as the trading day begins. Israel’s reported strikes in Tehran and Iran’s retaliatory missile launches have heightened concerns about a broader regional conflict, prompting defensive U.S. military deployments and evacuation warnings for Americans in Tehran5624. The situation is further complicated by China’s reported evacuation of its embassy staff from Iran, underlining the rising risk for foreign interests in the region16.

Oil markets are reacting to both geopolitical risk and supply headlines. Brent crude rebounded above $73 after reports of burning tankers near the Strait of Hormuz—one of the world’s key energy chokepoints—despite the IEA’s longer-term forecast for slowing demand growth and a supply surplus by 2030713. Near-term, traders are focused on the risk of further disruptions to energy flows and potential price volatility.

Safe-haven demand is evident as gold surges past $3,400/oz, supported by central bank buying and a World Gold Council survey showing a continued shift away from the dollar in global reserves818. U.S. equities recovered on Monday but futures slipped overnight as Mideast headlines drove renewed volatility in oil and gold20. Tech remains active: Nvidia received a target hike from Barclays on robust AI chip demand, while OpenAI’s talks to restructure its Microsoft partnership and SoftBank’s T-Mobile share sale add to sector-specific catalysts14119.

Crypto markets may see movement as the Senate prepares to vote on the GENIUS Stablecoin Act, which would set federal standards for dollar-pegged tokens15. In healthcare, Eli Lilly ’s $1.3B Verve Therapeutics acquisition highlights ongoing M&A activity in gene editing10. Traders should monitor for further escalation in the Middle East, energy market disruptions, and key U.S. policy signals for direction.