TL;DR

Israel-Iran strikes spike oil 14%, global equities drop; Taiwan tightens China chip tech exports.

Highlights

• Israel struck Iranian nuclear and energy sites, prompting Iran to threaten closure of the Strait of Hormuz and target Western military bases if conflict escalates16.
• Brent crude rose up to 14% on supply fears; global equities fell, volatility spiked, and energy/defense stocks outperformed26.
• Iran shut its airspace and halted all flights after Israeli attacks; South Pars gas output was temporarily disrupted34.
• IAEA confirmed Israeli strikes destroyed Iran’s Natanz above-ground enrichment plant; radiation is contained, underground facilities intact5.
• US and UK are reinforcing military presence in the Middle East; US redeployed destroyers and counter-drone systems from Ukraine, UK sent RAF jets78.
• OPEC rejected IEA calls to tap emergency oil reserves, maintaining current output policy despite price surge17.
• Taiwan imposed new export controls on Huawei and SMIC, tightening restrictions on AI chip technology to China10.
• Chinese AI firms are bypassing US chip curbs by transporting data to Malaysia for Nvidia -powered model training11.
• China and US published draft rules easing data and design barriers for Tesla ’s self-driving cars, potentially accelerating autonomous vehicle rollout12.
• Bunge ’s $8.2B acquisition of Viterra cleared final Chinese regulatory approval; Bunge shares rose 8.6%13.
• Brazil introduced a 17.5% flat tax on all crypto gains, ending small-investor exemptions15.
• Invesco and Galaxy registered a Solana ETF in Delaware; SEC review could conclude by July14.
• Port of Los Angeles imports fell 19% in May as US-China tariffs hit trade; China’s loan growth also weakened20.
• Turkey and China renewed a $4.88B currency swap agreement, maintaining bilateral financial cooperation19.
• Nippon Steel’s acquisition of US Steel is set to close by June 18 after US regulatory clearance16.

Commentary

Markets closed the week with heightened risk aversion as direct Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear and energy infrastructure raised the threat of wider regional conflict12. Iran’s threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil and LNG shipments, drove Brent and WTI sharply higher, with oil posting its largest daily gains in years12. Equity markets declined globally, volatility rose, and flows rotated into defensive sectors and traditional safe havens. Energy and defense stocks outperformed on expectations of supply disruptions and increased military spending26.

The US and UK moved quickly to bolster their military presence in the Middle East, redeploying naval and air-defense assets and signaling a readiness to deter further escalation789. OPEC’s decision to hold output steady, despite IEA calls for emergency measures, suggests the group is taking a wait-and-see approach, leaving oil markets highly sensitive to any confirmed shipping disruptions or military actions in key maritime routes17.

Trade and technology tensions remain in focus. Taiwan’s new export controls on Huawei and SMIC further restrict China’s access to advanced AI chip technology10, while Chinese AI firms’ workarounds highlight the challenges in enforcing export bans11. Meanwhile, draft rules from both the US and China to ease restrictions on autonomous vehicle data and design could accelerate the rollout of self-driving technology and benefit related equities such as Tesla 12. The completion of Bunge ’s Viterra acquisition and Nippon Steel’s imminent US Steel deal signal ongoing consolidation in commodities and industrials1316.

Crypto markets face mixed signals: Brazil’s new flat tax regime may dampen retail participation, while institutional demand could increase if the SEC approves a Solana ETF1415. In trade, the sharp drop in US imports from China and weak Chinese loan growth reflect the ongoing impact of tariffs and a softer global demand environment20.

Traders should monitor for further developments in the Middle East, particularly any confirmation of shipping disruptions or military escalation12. Oil, defense, and select tech names remain in focus, while macro data and trade flows will be key for assessing broader risk sentiment.