TL;DR

U.S. strikes Iran nuclear sites; Iran retaliates, oil surges; equities, crypto, risk assets drop.

Highlights

• U.S. launched airstrikes on Iran’s Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan nuclear sites; Trump warned of further action.1
• Iran retaliated with over 30 missiles targeting Israel, injuring at least 23; Israel responded with strikes on western Iran.2
• Iran’s parliament backed closure of the Strait of Hormuz; 50 oil tankers attempted to exit amid blockade concerns.3
• Brent crude jumped above $80/bbl, WTI up 3.6%; analysts warn Brent could reach $100 if Hormuz closes.4
• U.S. equity futures fell (Dow -0.4%, S&P 500 /Nasdaq 100 -0.5%); gold and dollar strengthened.4
• Bitcoin dropped below $100,000; over $570M in crypto liquidations; Ethereum fell 7.7%.5
• DHS issued a terrorism advisory for the U.S. following Iran strikes; major cities increased security.6
• Congress split over Trump’s Iran strikes, with renewed debate on presidential war powers.20
• UN Security Council held emergency session; Russia, China, and Pakistan pushed for cease-fire.19
• BNY Mellon exploring merger with Northern Trust , potentially reshaping the custody/asset-servicing sector.10
• Texas enacted a Bitcoin reserve law; BlackRock added 454 BTC amid market volatility.1218
• Senate parliamentarian upheld a 10-year federal freeze on state AI laws in GOP tax-and-spending bill.13

Commentary

Markets face elevated geopolitical risk to start the week following direct U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and Iran’s rapid missile response against Israel. The situation has sharply increased volatility across asset classes, with the focus on potential escalation and energy supply risk.12 The Iranian parliament’s move toward closing the Strait of Hormuz—pending final approval—has already triggered a rush of tankers from the region and driven Brent crude above $80/bbl.34 If the strait is closed or regional infrastructure is targeted, analysts see scope for oil to spike toward $100, adding inflation risk and weighing on global growth expectations.4

U.S. equity futures are lower as traders price in heightened risk and uncertainty. Defensive flows are evident, with gold and the dollar both firmer and risk assets under pressure.4 Crypto markets are seeing outsized volatility, with Bitcoin breaking below $100,000 and significant liquidations across digital assets.5 Despite institutional buying (e.g., BlackRock ’s BTC accumulation), the broader tone is de-risking as investors move away from leverage and speculative positions.18

The domestic security environment is in focus, with DHS warning of increased threats and major U.S. cities stepping up security.6 Political risk is also in play: Congress is divided over the president’s authority to launch strikes,20 and the Fed faces renewed pressure from Trump to cut rates, though monetary policy is likely to take a back seat to geopolitical headlines in the near term.9

Sector-specific news includes BNY Mellon ’s early-stage merger talks with Northern Trust , which could impact financials,10 and Texas’ new Bitcoin reserve law, highlighting continued institutional and state-level adoption of digital assets.12 The Senate’s move to freeze state-level AI regulation for a decade could also affect tech sector sentiment.13

Traders should monitor developments in the Strait of Hormuz, further military or cyber retaliation, and any diplomatic moves from the UN or U.S. administration.319 Energy, defense, cybersecurity, and gold are likely to remain in focus, while crypto and equities may remain volatile until the geopolitical backdrop stabilizes.