TL;DR

Trump tariff threats hit futures; OPEC+ boosts output; Tesla slides 7% on Musk’s political moves.

Highlights

• Trump threatens 10% tariffs on imports from countries aligning with BRICS policies; formal tariff letters to be sent by July 9, with tariffs now set to take effect August 1 12.
• Stock futures fall: Dow -150/200 pts, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 -0.3% to -0.4% pre-market; Asian equities and commodities also lower 23.
• OPEC+ to increase oil output by 548,000 bpd in August; Brent and WTI drop on supply and demand concerns 23.
• Tesla down 7% pre-market as CEO Musk’s new political plans heighten risk of policy retaliation and management distraction 4.
• U.S. and China to begin talks on TikTok ’s U.S. sale to Oracle -led group; new app launch set for September 5 5.
• Samsung expects Q2 profit to fall 39% on Nvidia chip delays and export controls; LG Electronics also warns of a 47% profit drop, while LG Energy Solution beats on battery demand 1020.
• Shell denies BP takeover rumors, warns of lower Q2 profits and trims LNG output; shares slip 9.
• Royal Gold to acquire Sandstorm Gold in $3.5B all-stock deal; Sandstorm up 10% pre-market 11.
• Capgemini to buy WNS for $3.3B cash to expand AI services; Capgemini shares down 4% 12.
• China increases FX reserves to $3.3T and adds gold for 8th month, signaling continued diversification 6.
• EU reports “good progress” in U.S. tariff talks ahead of July 9 deadline, aiming to avoid escalation 15.
• BBVA launches Bitcoin and Ether trading for Spanish retail clients, highlighting crypto’s mainstream adoption in Europe 13.

Commentary

US equity futures are under pressure as traders react to renewed tariff threats from President Trump, who plans a 10% levy on imports from countries backing BRICS policies, with formal notifications due by July 9 and implementation delayed to August 1 12. This policy uncertainty is weighing on risk sentiment globally, with Asian equities and US futures both lower 23. The EU’s statement of progress in tariff negotiations offers some hope of avoiding a broader trade escalation, but until concrete agreements are reached, volatility is likely to persist, especially for multinational and trade-exposed sectors 15.

Energy markets are softer after OPEC+ announced a larger-than-expected production increase for August, pushing Brent and WTI prices lower 23. Shell ’s profit warning and reduced LNG guidance further underscore the near-term challenges for the energy sector 9. In metals, China’s continued accumulation of gold and rising FX reserves point to ongoing diversification away from the US dollar, a trend that may support bullion and exert mild pressure on the greenback 6.

Tech and consumer sectors are seeing mixed signals. Tesla ’s 7% pre-market slide reflects investor concerns over CEO Musk’s political moves and the risk of policy retaliation, compounding existing worries about weak demand and increased competition 4. In Asia, Samsung and LG Electronics both flagged sharp profit declines due to chip delays and export restrictions, while LG Energy Solution outperformed on strong battery demand 1020. The TikTok sale talks could impact sentiment around US-listed social media names, depending on the outcome and regulatory tone 5.

Deal activity remains robust in select sectors, with Royal Gold ’s $3.5B all-stock acquisition of Sandstorm Gold and Capgemini ’s $3.3B purchase of WNS to expand AI services 1112. In crypto, BBVA ’s retail launch of Bitcoin and Ether trading in Spain signals growing mainstream adoption in Europe, though immediate US market impact is limited 13.

Traders should monitor updates on US-EU tariff negotiations, BRICS responses, and the TikTok sale process, while watching for further volatility in trade-sensitive equities, energy, and tech 123515.