TL;DR

Trump tariffs advance, $4.5T US bill passes, China trade and global supply chains shift.

Highlights

• Trump administration begins sending formal tariff letters (20–30% rates) to global partners, ahead of July 9 deadline; over 170 countries face pressure to negotiate or accept new duties 1.
• US House passes Trump’s $4.5 trillion “One Big Beautiful Bill,” making 2017 tax cuts permanent, expanding fossil-fuel subsidies, and increasing deficits; signing set for July 4 2.
• US-Vietnam trade deal includes 40% tariffs on transshipped goods, boosting Vietnam apparel stocks and tightening controls on Chinese rerouting 7.
• US ends “de minimis” tax exemption for low-value Chinese imports, imposing ~30% tariffs; Temu and Shein US user bases fall sharply; Asia-US air cargo and container traffic decline 5.
• TSMC delays second Japan fab, reallocates investment to US facilities to reduce tariff exposure 4.
• China imposes up to 34.9% tariffs on EU brandy, escalating trade tensions and sharply reducing French cognac shipments to China 6.
• Russia launches largest drone/missile attack on Ukraine after Trump-Putin call; Western intelligence reports surge in Russian chemical weapons use 1112.
• IAEA withdraws inspectors from Iran due to security concerns, suspending on-site nuclear monitoring 3.
• US Bitcoin ETFs attract $1 billion in two days after brief outflows; dormant 2011 wallets move 20,000 Bitcoin ($2.2B), but no exchange sales 1415.
• SEBI bars Jane Street from Indian markets for index manipulation, seizing $567M; Indian brokerage/exchange stocks fall 8.
• J.P. Morgan cuts stablecoin market outlook to $500B by 2028, citing slow adoption and regulatory challenges 17.

Commentary

US trade policy is in sharp focus as the Trump administration accelerates its tariff campaign, with formal notices of 20–30% duties now being sent to trading partners 1. The expiration of the “de minimis” exemption on low-value Chinese imports has already caused a sharp drop in US users for Temu and Shein, and a notable contraction in Asia-US air cargo and container flows 5. The new US-Vietnam trade deal, which imposes a 40% tariff on transshipped goods, is boosting Vietnam-exposed equities such as G-Iii Apparel Group Ltd , Superior Group of Companies, Inc. Common Stock , and V.F. Corporation , and signals a continued push to reduce US supply chain reliance on China 7. TSMC ’s decision to delay a Japan fab and redirect investment to the US underscores how tariff and policy risk are actively shaping global capital allocation in semiconductors 4.

The passage of the $4.5 trillion “One Big Beautiful Bill” cements a pro-growth, pro-fossil fuel US policy stance, but the CBO projects $3.3–$3.4 trillion in added deficits over the next decade 2. This fiscal expansion, combined with higher tariffs, could support near-term US equity sectors such as energy, defense, and domestically oriented manufacturers, but may raise concerns in Treasuries and the dollar as investors weigh the inflationary and credit implications of larger deficits and potential import cost increases 2.

Geopolitical risk remains elevated. Russia’s record drone and missile attack on Ukraine, alongside Western intelligence reporting increased Russian chemical weapons use, is likely to keep defense and energy markets sensitive 1112. The IAEA’s withdrawal of inspectors from Iran leaves a gap in nuclear monitoring and could add to risk premiums in oil and related assets 3. Meanwhile, China’s new tariffs on EU brandy highlight ongoing trade friction with Europe, though direct US market impact appears limited 6.

In digital assets, US spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs have rebounded with $1 billion in inflows over two days, signaling persistent institutional demand despite volatility and the movement of dormant Bitcoin wallets 1415. J.P. Morgan’s downward revision of stablecoin growth forecasts and the SEBI action against Jane Street in India highlight ongoing regulatory headwinds in both crypto and global trading 817.

Traders should monitor for further tariff headlines, supply chain adjustments, and fiscal policy impacts on rates and FX. Volatility is likely across equities, fixed income, and select commodities as global trade and geopolitical tensions remain fluid.