TL;DR

Trump may allow downgraded Nvidia/AMD AI chip sales to China; C3.ai plunges; MeridianLink, WOW acquired.

Highlights

• Trump signals willingness to let Nvidia and AMD sell downgraded AI chips to China, with a 15% revenue levy and reduced chip capabilities; policy could cut chipmaker margins by 5–15%1.
• C3.ai shares drop 30% after warning of sharply lower Q1 sales and CEO health issues; BigBear.ai also misses Q2 estimates and cuts 2025 revenue outlook, highlighting challenges for smaller AI software firms210.
• Trump nominates Heritage Foundation economist E.J. Antoni to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics, raising concerns about political influence over key economic data4.
• Russian forces cut a critical Ukrainian supply route near Dobropillya, escalating risks in eastern Ukraine6.
• Centerbridge Partners to acquire MeridianLink for $2B at a 26% premium; WideOpenWest (WOW) also to be taken private at a 63% premium, reflecting ongoing M&A activity in tech and telecom7.
• Sinclair Broadcast Group begins strategic review, including possible mergers or a Ventures spinoff; shares rise up to 20%8.
• Stripe is developing a payments-focused blockchain, “Tempo,” with Paradigm, expanding its digital asset infrastructure9.
• Terraform Labs’ Do Kwon set to plead guilty in the $40B TerraUSD fraud case, with potential implications for crypto litigation and regulation5.
• Cango acquires a Georgia Bitcoin mining facility for $19.5M; Marathon Digital in talks to buy a majority stake in EDF’s Exaion, signaling continued consolidation in crypto mining12.
• AST SpaceMobile misses Q2 estimates but maintains 2025 revenue target and confirms strong cash position for satellite deployment11.

Commentary

Chipmakers saw after-hours focus as Trump indicated a possible deal allowing Nvidia and AMD to export downgraded AI chips to China, subject to a 15% revenue levy and significant performance reductions. While this could preserve some China sales, the required margin concessions and regulatory precedent may weigh on sector profitability and set a template for future export controls. Investors should monitor how chip stocks digest the news, especially in light of ongoing U.S.-China tech tensions1.

AI software names remain under pressure, with C3.ai ’s sharp revenue miss and CEO health disclosure driving a 30% share decline. BigBear.ai ’s weak quarter and guidance cut further underscore the difficulty smaller AI vendors face in converting demand into sales, as large tech incumbents consolidate market share. This trend may prompt further rotation away from speculative AI software toward established hardware and platform providers210.

Macro policy risk is in focus after Trump nominated E.J. Antoni, a vocal critic of current BLS methods, to lead the agency just ahead of key inflation data. Any perception of political interference in economic statistics could increase volatility in rates and FX markets, as traders reassess the reliability of data that anchors Fed policy and market expectations4.

Geopolitical risk remains elevated after Russian forces severed a key Ukrainian supply route in Donetsk, potentially impacting sentiment in energy and grain markets if the conflict escalates6. Meanwhile, M&A activity continues to support tech and telecom valuations, with sizable premiums paid for MeridianLink and WOW , and Sinclair’s review fueling speculation of further sector consolidation78.

Crypto infrastructure continues to evolve, with Stripe’s blockchain initiative and further mining sector deals (Cango , Marathon ) highlighting institutional interest, even as regulatory scrutiny remains high following Do Kwon’s expected guilty plea in the TerraUSD fraud case5912.