TL;DR

Moody’s cuts U.S. credit; Trump-Putin cease-fire talks lift stocks; Senate stablecoin vote looms.

Highlights

• Moody’s downgraded U.S. sovereign credit to Aa1, citing rising debt and political gridlock; S&P 500 dropped 1%, 30-year Treasury yield rose above 5%1.
• Trump-Putin call led to immediate Russia-Ukraine cease-fire talks; U.S. equities rebounded intraday2.
• China’s state banks to cut deposit rates Tuesday as stimulus3; China criticizes new U.S. AI chip export controls, warns of possible retaliation15.
• JPMorgan to allow clients to buy Bitcoin (no custody); CEO Dimon warns of recession, stagflation, and U.S. debt risks419.
• U.S. Senate to revote tonight on GENIUS Act, a key stablecoin regulation bill; outcome could impact crypto markets5.
• Circle in talks to sell to Coinbase or Ripple amid $5B IPO plans; bids above $10B reported12.
• CME launched XRP futures after SEC legal setback; XRP maintains strong liquidity and institutional interest13.
• Tether surpasses Germany in U.S. Treasury holdings; stablecoin market hits $244B, with U.S. regulatory momentum14.
• MicroStrategy bought 7,390 more Bitcoin for $765M, raising holdings to 576,230 BTC11.
• CoreWeave announces $1.5B senior notes; Nvidia’s stake gains $1.7B as $CRWV trades at record highs9.
• Microsoft Build: Azure to host xAI’s Grok models; GitHub debuts autonomous Copilot agent for developers10.
• House advances Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” for major tax cuts and border security16; solar stocks fall as GOP targets clean-energy tax credits17.

Commentary

Markets opened under pressure after Moody’s downgraded U.S. sovereign credit, removing its last triple-A rating among major agencies. The move highlighted persistent fiscal concerns, pushing the 30-year Treasury yield above 5% and weighing on equities1. However, sentiment improved intraday following news of Trump-Putin talks to initiate immediate Russia-Ukraine cease-fire negotiations, with the Dow and S&P 500 recovering some early losses2.

Macro and policy headlines remain in focus. China’s upcoming deposit rate cuts signal further stimulus3, but ongoing tensions over U.S. AI chip export controls introduce risk of retaliatory measures that could impact tech supply chains and U.S.-listed China ETFs15. In Washington, the House advanced a sweeping tax and border security bill16, while solar and clean energy stocks lagged after GOP leaders moved to end key tax credits17.

Digital assets remain active. The Senate’s stablecoin regulation vote tonight could reshape the U.S. crypto landscape5, especially as Circle weighs a sale and Tether’s Treasury holdings grow1214. CME ’s XRP futures launch follows a legal setback for the SEC and highlights institutional demand for crypto derivatives13. MicroStrategy ’s continued Bitcoin accumulation and JPMorgan ’s new Bitcoin trading access for clients (without custody) further reflect ongoing institutional engagement, despite CEO Dimon’s warnings on macro risks41119.

In tech, Microsoft ’s Build conference showcased deeper AI integration across Azure and developer tools10, while CoreWeave’s debt raise and Nvidia ’s gains underscore strong capital flows into AI infrastructure9. Traders should monitor late-session volatility tied to the Senate vote, U.S.-Russia-Ukraine headlines, and any signals from China regarding potential trade or tech retaliation5215.