Highlights

• Trump reverses sweeping "reciprocal" tariffs after bond market selloff drives Treasury yields higher; crypto market cap tops $3 trillion as fears ease1.
• Shein, Temu, and Amazon sharply hike U.S. prices (up to 377%) after new Trump tariffs; China retaliates, but some tariffs may be cut from 145% to 50–65%420.
• Foreign investors sell $63B in U.S. stocks since March, but U.S. equity and Treasury funds see record $156B in inflows, driven by retail demand6.
• U.S. stocks underperform global markets by widest margin since 1993; S&P 500 concentration at 60-year highs, Buffett indicator still elevated at 182%7.
• Tesla surges 24% on Musk’s renewed focus and favorable U.S. self-driving rules, despite weak EU sales and profits5.
• Bitcoin exchange reserves hit lowest since 2018; U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs see $3.06B inflow (second-largest ever) as BTC rallies to $95,000; Ethereum ETFs also attract capital810.
• Fed rolls back Biden-era crypto restrictions, boosting mainstream adoption; SEC approves ProShares XRP futures ETFs (launch April 30)129.
• China lifts tariffs on 8 U.S. semiconductors; Chinese firms accelerate U.S. factory openings to bypass tariffs20.
• U.S. announces steep port fees on Chinese ships and new LNG/car carrier rules, risking supply chain disruptions and higher costs for LNG, autos, and shipping19.
• Bank of Japan holds rates at 0.5%, downgrades growth outlook, pauses hikes until October due to U.S. tariffs17.
• Geopolitics: North Korea confirms troop deployment to Russia; U.S. Senate pushes secondary tariffs on Russian energy; Trump threatens new sanctions after meeting Zelensky; Israel vows to destroy Iran’s nuclear sites; major blast at Iran’s Bandar Abbas port disrupts shipping21618143.
• FDA delays Novavax Covid vaccine approval, raising regulatory risks for Pfizer , Moderna , and all annual Covid shot updates11.

Commentary

This week opens with a potent mix of macro, geopolitical, and sector-specific catalysts. The U.S. bond market flexed its muscle, forcing President Trump to retreat from aggressive tariff plans after a sharp rise in Treasury yields—an episode that underscores the power of "bond vigilantes" and the market’s sensitivity to fiscal risks1. The reversal helped stabilize risk sentiment and fueled a record-breaking $3 trillion crypto market cap, as fears of both tariffs and Fed leadership changes receded1. Meanwhile, the Fed’s rollback of crypto restrictions and the SEC’s green light for XRP futures ETFs further embolden digital asset flows, with Bitcoin ETF inflows and exchange reserve depletion pointing to continued upside risk for crypto129108.

Equities face a more nuanced picture. Despite record inflows into U.S. equity and Treasury funds—driven by retail investors—foreign selling has accelerated, and U.S. stocks are lagging global peers by the widest margin since 199367. Concentration risk is acute: the top 10 S&P 500 stocks now make up 38% of the index, and the Buffett indicator remains well above historical norms7. Tesla ’s 24% rally on regulatory tailwinds and Musk’s renewed focus provides a bright spot, but underlying profit and sales weakness, especially in Europe, signals caution for growth narratives5.

Trade and supply chain disruptions remain front and center. Shein, Temu, and Amazon have passed steep tariff costs directly to U.S. consumers, with some prices up nearly 400%4. While China is retaliating and shifting production to the U.S., both sides are signaling a willingness to moderate tariffs, suggesting a possible near-term easing of trade tensions20. However, new U.S. port fees on Chinese ships and LNG carriers threaten to snarl logistics and drive up costs in shipping, energy, and autos—watch for ripple effects in industrials, transport, and commodities19.

Geopolitical risk is elevated: North Korean troops are now confirmed in Russia, the U.S. Senate is moving toward secondary sanctions on Russian energy, and Trump is threatening further banking restrictions21618. In the Middle East, Israel’s vow to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities and the deadly Bandar Abbas port explosion add further risk to energy and shipping markets143. The Bank of Japan ’s dovish pause—citing U.S. tariffs—highlights the global spillover from U.S. policy shifts17.

For Monday, traders should watch U.S. yields for signs of further bond market activism, monitor crypto ETF flows and price action, and be alert for volatility in industrials, shipping, and energy names exposed to trade and geopolitical shocks. The ongoing rotation out of U.S. stocks by foreign investors, despite strong retail inflows, suggests persistent fragility under the surface6. Stay nimble, hedge exposures, and keep a close eye on cross-asset correlations as these themes play out.