TL;DR

US-China trade framework, World Bank cuts global growth, Russia extends oil export ban.

Highlights

• US and China reach provisional framework to ease rare-earth and tech export restrictions; awaiting Trump and Xi approval 1.
• World Bank cuts 2025 global growth outlook to 2.3% on trade tensions; US and Eurozone forecasts lowered 2.
• ECB’s Lagarde in Beijing warns that escalating protectionism risks triggering a global downturn 3.
• Russia extends ban on oil sales to countries observing Western price cap through end-2025; shipments require special permission 4.
• OPEC projects 44% rise in oil demand by 2050, urges $17.4T investment; Brent crude holds above $67 12.
• Hong Kong pension funds plan to cut US Treasuries if US loses AAA rating after Moody’s downgrade 14.
• EDF reports new cracks at Civaux nuclear plant, driving European power prices higher 13.
• US and Mexico near deal to lift 50% steel tariffs in exchange for import quotas; US steel stocks fall 6.
• Israel cancels banking waiver for Palestinian institutions, risking collapse of Palestinian financial system; UK and allies sanction Israeli ministers 820.
• Iran warns it will target US bases if conflict erupts, after missile test; US/EU file IAEA censure resolution 1110.
• Inditex misses earnings forecasts, pulling IBEX 35 down ~1% to 14,100; European equities mixed 17.
• South Korea unveils “one strike” rule and dividend-tax reforms to boost market confidence 16.
• Japan’s Marelli files for US Chapter 11, secures $1.1B financing to maintain operations 18.
• Peter Thiel-backed crypto exchange Bullish confidentially files for US IPO 19.
• China offers zero tariffs on all products from 53 African nations (except Eswatini), deepening Africa ties 5.

Commentary

The US-China provisional trade framework signals a potential de-escalation in critical sectors, notably rare earths and technology 1, but implementation hinges on final approval from both leaders 1. While this could stabilize supply chains and support global manufacturing equities, the World Bank’s lowered growth outlook 2 and ECB ’s Lagarde’s warnings 3 highlight that trade policy uncertainty remains a drag on global sentiment. Market participants should monitor for concrete details and signatures before pricing in a sustained improvement.

Energy markets remain tight. Russia’s extension of its oil export ban to price-cap adherents 4 and OPEC’s call for massive long-term investment 12 underpin Brent crude above $67 12. The supply outlook is further clouded by EDF ’s new nuclear safety issues, which have pushed European power prices higher 13 and may pressure Eurozone inflation. These developments support energy equities and could keep inflation expectations elevated, complicating central bank policy paths.

Fixed income faces renewed scrutiny: Hong Kong pension funds’ contingency to cut US Treasuries 14 if the US loses its AAA rating adds to global concerns over sovereign credit quality. This could drive volatility in US yields and the dollar, especially if further rating actions materialize.

In equities, Inditex’s earnings miss and the resulting IBEX 35 drop underscore ongoing earnings sensitivity in Europe 17. The US-Mexico steel deal, if finalized, would ease supply chain tensions but weighs on US steelmakers such as United States Steel Corporation and Steel Dynamics Inc 6. South Korea’s capital market reforms 16 and Bullish ’s IPO filing 19 highlight regional efforts to boost investor confidence and capitalize on digital asset momentum.

Geopolitical risk remains high. Israel’s banking move 8 and new Western sanctions 20 could destabilize Palestinian finances and raise regional tensions. Iran’s threats 11, coupled with US/EU censure at the IAEA 10, add to Middle East risk premia. Traders should stay alert to further escalations impacting energy, regional assets, and safe havens.