TL;DR

Israel-Syria cease-fire set; US, Canada ramp tariffs; TSMC profit jumps on AI demand.

Highlights

• Israel struck Syrian military targets in Damascus, but a US-brokered cease-fire with Syria is set to begin tonight 12.
• Russia’s Medvedev warned of “full-scale war” with the West; major Russian banks are considering potential state bailouts due to rising bad loans 35.
• The European Commission proposed a €2 trillion 2028–2034 budget, including €100 billion for Ukraine, facing resistance from some EU members 4.
• The US will impose a 50% tariff on all Brazilian exports; Brazil protested and exporters have paused shipments 6.
• Canada imposed a 25% tariff on Chinese steel and tightened import quotas, aiming to protect its domestic industry 7.
• US national-security concerns have delayed a multi-billion-dollar Nvidia AI chip sale to the UAE; the FCC plans to bar Chinese tech from US subsea cables 89.
• TSMC posted a 61% YoY profit jump on AI demand and raised its 2025 outlook; Samsung’s Jay Y. Lee was acquitted in a key merger case 1514.
• BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF surpassed $80 billion in assets; US spot Ethereum ETFs saw record inflows; Tether minted $2 billion USDT, pushing supply above $160 billion 1617.
• The US House advanced major crypto bills, including a federal stablecoin framework, moving closer to comprehensive digital asset regulation 20.
• Australia’s unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, prompting a sharp AUD drop and solidifying expectations for an August RBA rate cut 19.
• Drone strikes hit a Hunt Oil field in Iraqi Kurdistan, raising concerns about regional energy infrastructure security 12.
• Eni signed a $15 billion, 20-year US LNG supply deal, expanding Europe’s reliance on US gas 18.

Commentary

Geopolitical risk remains elevated. Israel’s strike on Damascus and the subsequent US-brokered cease-fire highlight ongoing instability in the Middle East 12. While immediate escalation may be contained, persistent drone attacks on Iraqi oil infrastructure 12 and the ICC’s continued pursuit of Israeli leaders 11 keep regional risks in focus. Energy traders should monitor Brent and regional crude benchmarks for renewed volatility.

Russia’s increasingly confrontational rhetoric 3, paired with signs of stress in its banking sector 5, adds to market uncertainty. The prospect of state bailouts for major Russian lenders could impact Russian financial assets and sovereign risk pricing. Meanwhile, the EU’s proposed €2 trillion budget—especially the €100 billion Ukraine allocation—signals continued fiscal expansion but faces internal resistance, which could affect eurozone yields and policy expectations 4.

Trade tensions are intensifying. The US’s sweeping 50% tariff on Brazilian exports 6 and Canada’s new steel tariffs targeting Chinese supply 7 are likely to disrupt supply chains, pressure industrial equities, and add volatility to commodity-linked currencies such as BRL . The delayed Nvidia chip sale to the UAE 8 and new US restrictions on Chinese tech in subsea cables 9 reflect ongoing US-China tech decoupling, which may influence global tech supply chains and sector sentiment.

On the tech front, TSMC ’s strong results and Samsung’s cleared legal overhang support the ongoing AI-driven semiconductor rally 1514, though management flagged FX and tariff risks. In digital assets, BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF and surging stablecoin issuance 1617 point to sustained institutional demand, while US legislative progress could further legitimize the sector 20.

Macro data showed Australia’s labor market softening, with a higher jobless rate pushing the AUD lower and solidifying expectations for RBA easing in August 19. This could influence regional risk appetite and rates markets. Traders should stay alert to developments in trade policy, central bank signals, and geopolitical flashpoints as cross-asset volatility persists.