TL;DR

U.S.-EU tariff tensions escalate; ECB holds rates; UK/EU cut Russian oil cap; Chevron closes $53B Hess deal.

Highlights

• EU prepares retaliatory tariffs after U.S. signals 30% import duties on broad imports, escalating trade tensions1.
• ECB to keep rates unchanged at July meeting, citing need for more data amid weaker euro-area exports2.
• China trims U.S. Treasury holdings to $756.3B, lowest since 2009, even as overall foreign inflows rise5.
• UK and EU lower Russian oil price cap to $47.60/bbl, seeking to cut Moscow’s revenue; G7 urged to align3.
• Chevron finalizes $53B Hess acquisition, securing Guyana Stabroek Block stake after arbitration win over Exxon 8.
• Trump signs GENIUS Act, establishing first U.S. stablecoin regulations; Bitcoin briefly nears $120,0007.
• Nvidia’s China AI chip sales restart is stalled by TSMC capacity constraints despite eased U.S. export curbs6.
• China pledges crackdown on strategic mineral smuggling11; rare-earth magnet exports to U.S. surge 660% in June post-truce18.
• Japan’s ruling coalition risks losing upper house majority; PM Ishiba’s approval at record low, raising policy uncertainty14.
• Iran and European powers agree to resume nuclear talks, potentially impacting oil market sentiment17.
• UK considers $7B sale of seized Bitcoin to address budget gap, raising questions on government crypto liquidations9.
• Hong Kong issues T10 storm signal as Typhoon Wipha disrupts over 500 flights and regional logistics12.

Commentary

Trade and policy risks remain front and center for global markets. The U.S. move toward 30% import tariffs and the EU’s immediate preparations for retaliation signal a further deterioration in trans-Atlantic trade relations1, with potential spillovers for global supply chains and export-driven equities. The ECB’s decision to hold rates steady, despite trade headwinds and slowing exports, underscores its limited policy flexibility and may keep the euro under pressure, especially as the dollar remains supported by resilient foreign inflows into U.S. Treasuries—even as China continues to reduce its holdings25.

In commodities, the UK and EU’s coordinated move to lower the Russian oil price cap tightens pressure on Moscow’s revenues and could reshape flows if G7 partners follow suit3. Chevron ’s completion of its Hess acquisition secures a major growth asset in Guyana, positioning the company for higher output and cost synergies8, while Iran’s agreement to resume nuclear talks with Europe introduces a new variable for oil market risk premia17.

China’s internal and external policy maneuvers remain critical for supply chains and tech. The crackdown on strategic mineral smuggling11, coupled with a sharp jump in rare-earth magnet exports to the U.S. after a trade truce18, highlights the ongoing volatility and politicization of critical resource flows. Meanwhile, Nvidia ’s China AI chip business remains supply-constrained due to TSMC capacity, limiting near-term upside despite U.S. export license relief6.

In digital assets, the U.S. GENIUS Act provides the first federal framework for stablecoins, boosting sentiment in crypto markets and supporting a brief rally in Bitcoin 7. The UK’s consideration of a $7B Bitcoin liquidation to address fiscal gaps introduces a new angle for government-driven crypto supply, which could become a trend if other states follow suit9. Weather events such as Typhoon Wipha’s disruption in Hong Kong add further short-term risk for logistics and regional equities12.

Key watch points for traders: U.S.-EU tariff escalation1, ECB policy signals2, Japanese political developments14, oil market moves linked to Russia and Iran317, and regulatory or liquidation-driven volatility in crypto markets79.