TL;DR

Russian strikes escalate; EU/UK trigger new sanctions on Russia/Iran; U.S. doubles tariffs on India.

Highlights

• Russian missile strikes kill 15 in Kyiv, damage EU and UK institutions; EU leaders push for tighter sanctions as attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure intensify 1.
• UK, France, and Germany move to trigger UN snapback sanctions on Iran, risking reimposed restrictions on Iranian energy and finance 2.
• Trump administration doubles tariffs on most Indian goods to 50%, threatening $37B in exports; India seeks new trade deals and markets 4.
• Mexico to propose tariffs on Chinese cars, textiles, and plastics in 2026 budget, responding to U.S. pressure and domestic industry concerns 5.
• China to cut over 90 million tonnes of coal-based steel output by 2026, cap coal production, and expand domestic iron ore projects 6.
• Russia extends full gasoline export ban through September; Arctic LNG 2 delivers first sanctioned LNG cargo to China 78.
• EU considers secondary sanctions on third-country firms aiding Russia, with possible new restrictions on oil, gas, and finance 11.
• Bank of Korea holds rates but signals majority support for a cut within months; Philippine central bank cuts rates to 5% 920.
• Japan’s 2-year JGB auction sees weakest demand since 2009, reflecting caution ahead of potential BOJ policy changes 10.
• Berkshire Hathaway raises Mitsubishi stake above 10%, becoming top shareholder and signaling continued interest in Japanese trading houses 18.
• FBI and allies warn of Chinese “Salt Typhoon” cyber-espionage campaign in 80 countries; Pentagon orders audit of Microsoft cloud after Chinese engineer involvement 1312.
• Europe’s auto market rebounds in July; BYD overtakes Tesla in regional EV sales as Chinese brands gain share 17.

Commentary

Geopolitical risk remains front and center, with Russian strikes on Kyiv and damage to EU-linked infrastructure prompting European calls for stricter sanctions 1. The EU is also considering secondary sanctions to clamp down on Russia’s access to global markets 11, while the UK, France, and Germany are moving to reimpose broad UN sanctions on Iran—both actions that could further restrict energy flows and add volatility to oil and gas prices 211. Russia’s gasoline export ban extension 7 and the first sanctioned LNG cargo from Arctic LNG 2 to China 8 highlight ongoing disruptions and evolving sanction enforcement in global energy trade.

Trade protectionism is intensifying. The Trump administration’s 50% tariffs on Indian goods threaten significant disruption to bilateral trade, especially in labor-intensive sectors, with India accelerating diversification efforts 4. Mexico’s planned tariffs on Chinese imports reflect both domestic pressures and alignment with U.S. trade policy 5, while China’s steel output cuts and anti-dumping measures underscore efforts to stabilize domestic industry amid global headwinds 616. These developments point to ongoing supply chain adjustments and potential currency and commodity volatility, particularly in emerging markets.

Central banks in Asia are signaling a cautious easing bias. The Bank of Korea held rates but flagged likely cuts within months 9, while the Philippines delivered another rate reduction to support growth 20. In contrast, Japan’s weak 2-year JGB auction signals market nerves ahead of possible BOJ normalization, which could impact regional fixed income and FX markets 10.

In equities, Berkshire Hathaway ’s increased stake in Mitsubishi signals sustained foreign interest in Japanese corporates despite shifting rate expectations 18. Europe’s auto sector is rebounding, with Chinese EV makers like BYD gaining ground despite regulatory scrutiny and tariff threats 17. Meanwhile, cybersecurity risks are in focus following the exposure of a major Chinese cyber-espionage campaign 13 and the Pentagon’s audit of Microsoft ’s cloud operations 12, raising the risk profile for tech and defense sectors.