TL;DR

Databricks nears $100B round; OpenAI targets $500B valuation; Figure files for IPO after profit.

Highlights

• Databricks is finalizing a Series K round at a $100B+ valuation (up 61% YoY), led by Thrive Capital and Andreessen Horowitz, to fund AI product development and acquisitions 1.
• OpenAI is in talks for a $6B employee secondary sale at a $500B valuation, with $12B projected annual revenue and significant cash burn 2.
• Figure Technology Solutions filed for a Nasdaq IPO after turning profitable, with $191M H1 revenue and $16B+ in loan originations 4.
• Shein considers moving its HQ back to China to secure Hong Kong IPO approval; valuation targets have dropped to ~$30B amid regulatory and trade scrutiny 3.
• Eight Sleep raised $100M, nearing unicorn status, to expand its AI-powered sleep tech into retail and new international markets 5.
• Chamath Palihapitiya filed for a $250M SPAC (AEXA) targeting AI, DeFi, energy, and defense, with explicit risk warnings to investors 6.
• SoftBank acquired a 2% stake in Intel for $2B, deepening its AI infrastructure exposure; the U.S. government is separately negotiating for a 10% non-voting equity stake in Intel via CHIPS Act grants 713.
• Nvidia is developing a Blackwell B30A AI chip for China to comply with U.S. export controls, aiming to retain market share 8.
• Arm hired Amazon ’s AI chip director to accelerate in-house chip development, signaling a move beyond IP licensing 9.
• Meta is restructuring its AI division into four units, with leadership from Scale AI, GitHub, and others; layoffs and external model integrations are under consideration 10.
• SkyBridge Capital is tokenizing $300M of hedge fund assets on Avalanche, reflecting growing institutional adoption of blockchain for asset management 14.
• MetaMask is adding native TRON support, expanding its Web3 wallet’s reach beyond Ethereum 15.
• Kalshi is expanding into football prop markets despite mounting state-level legal challenges, with $2B in contracts traded YTD and backing from Paradigm and Robinhood 12.
• China’s DeepSeek released V3.1 of its LLM with a 128k token context window, targeting enterprise users and intensifying global AI competition 11.

Commentary

Late-stage AI and data infrastructure companies are driving private market valuations to new highs, with Databricks and OpenAI both posting significant valuation jumps and attracting major institutional capital 12. The scale and pace of these rounds, particularly OpenAI's $500B secondary transaction and Databricks' $100B+ raise, reinforce the current capital concentration in established AI leaders 12. This dynamic is likely to compress funding and valuation opportunities for earlier-stage AI startups as investors prioritize scale and proven revenue growth 12.

Exit activity is picking up in fintech and blockchain, as Figure’s profitable IPO filing and SkyBridge’s $300M asset tokenization on Avalanche signal renewed institutional interest in digital asset platforms and real-world asset tokenization 414. However, regulatory risks remain material, highlighted by Kalshi’s ongoing legal battles and Shein’s need to shift its domicile for IPO approval, both of which could affect exit timelines and investor confidence in cross-border or regulated sectors 123.

On the hardware and infrastructure front, strategic moves by SoftBank (Intel stake), the U.S. government (potential Intel equity), Nvidia (China-specific chip), and Arm (in-house chip development) highlight the ongoing competition for AI compute and supply chain control 71389. These developments may drive further late-stage deal activity and M&A in AI hardware, but also raise the bar for technical and regulatory execution 71389.

Platform and ecosystem shifts continue, with Meta ’s AI unit restructuring and MetaMask’s TRON integration reflecting ongoing specialization and competition across both AI and Web3 1015. Rapid product iteration—seen in DeepSeek’s LLM upgrade and Eight Sleep’s expansion—remains a differentiator for startups seeking to capture enterprise and consumer adoption 115.