Highlights

• US initial jobless claims rose to 241,000 (highest in two months), with continuing claims also above expectations, signaling potential labor market cooling ahead of Friday’s payrolls1.
• Treasury Secretary Bessent urged the Fed to cut rates as the 2-year Treasury yield fell below the federal funds rate; market eyes June for a possible rate cut3.
• Microsoft (+9.1%) and Meta (+6%) surged on strong earnings, driven by AI and cloud growth; both plan further heavy AI infrastructure investment2.
• Nvidia shares jumped 5% as the US considers easing AI chip export restrictions to the UAE amid a $1.4T UAE investment pledge; Nvidia also faces looming China export controls set for May 15416.
• Apple and Amazon report earnings after the close; implied stock moves are ±7% for Apple and ±8% for Amazon, with high expectations following strong tech sector results8.
• Mastercard beat Q1 estimates with 14% revenue growth and strong cross-border volumes, affirming robust consumer spending9.
• Tesla erased $36B in market cap after a disputed WSJ report about CEO replacement; both Musk and Tesla denied the claims6.
• Trump administration imposed new sanctions on Iranian oil buyers, escalating geopolitical risks and potentially impacting global energy markets5.
• U.S. Chamber of Commerce urged Trump to lift tariffs on small businesses to avert recession, citing mounting economic pressure from trade policy18.
• Third Point revealed a meaningful stake in U.S. Steel, expects Nippon merger to proceed, and sees credit markets as ripe for tactical opportunities amid tariff volatility11.
• Coinbase will suspend trading of the Trump-linked MOVE token on May 15 after a $38M scandal and Binance ban; crypto market integrity concerns rise12.
• 21Shares filed for spot Dogecoin and Sui ETFs, while Charles Schwab announced plans to launch spot Bitcoin and Ethereum trading within 12 months, signaling continued crypto mainstreaming1314.

Commentary

Today's session is marked by a clear divergence between robust tech sector performance and signs of economic deceleration in the broader US economy. Microsoft and Meta 's earnings blowout, powered by AI and cloud demand, have reinvigorated risk appetite in large-cap tech, with Nvidia riding the wave on both strong sector sentiment and optimism around potential export rule easing to the UAE24. However, the tech rally is set against a backdrop of rising jobless claims and softening labor market data, which have revived hopes for Fed rate cuts—especially as the 2-year Treasury yield slips below the policy rate, a classic signal of market expectations for easier monetary policy13.

Equities are likely to remain bifurcated: mega-cap tech and AI infrastructure names are clear leaders, while cyclicals and small caps may lag amid recession concerns and tariff headwinds. The upcoming Apple and Amazon earnings after the bell are major catalysts; implied volatility is high, and any disappointment could trigger sharp moves given the sector’s recent outperformance8. Meanwhile, Mastercard ’s strong results confirm resilient consumer spending, but the warning signs from labor data and the Chamber of Commerce’s plea for tariff relief suggest underlying fragility918.

Fixed income markets are pricing in increased odds of a Fed cut, possibly as soon as June, which is supporting Treasuries and capping yields3. Credit markets are highlighted as attractive by Third Point, suggesting tactical opportunities as volatility persists—especially for those nimble enough to navigate policy-driven swings11. Commodities face renewed geopolitical risk as Trump’s fresh sanctions on Iranian oil buyers threaten to tighten global supply, while the postponement of US-Iran nuclear talks adds further uncertainty517.

In crypto, regulatory and market structure stories are front and center. The MOVE token scandal and subsequent delisting by Coinbase highlight ongoing integrity risks, but mainstream adoption continues apace: 21Shares is pushing for spot Dogecoin and Sui ETFs, and Schwab ’s entry into spot Bitcoin/Ethereum trading could be a game changer for institutional flows121314. Tether’s massive USDT minting and growing reserves reinforce the stablecoin’s dominance, but also raise questions about systemic risk15.

Traders should watch for late-session volatility around Apple and Amazon earnings, monitor bond market signals for clues on Fed timing, and keep an eye on oil and defense stocks amid escalating Middle East tensions517. In crypto, regulatory headlines and ETF developments could drive outsized moves. Stay nimble—cross-asset correlations remain high, and policy risk is the dominant theme into the close.