TL;DR

Russia claims Luhansk; U.S. hikes China tariffs to 50%; Euro, gold, crypto rally on Fed cut bets.

Highlights

• Russia claims full control of Ukraine’s Luhansk region1; Ukraine strikes Russian defense plant 1,300 km inside Russia2.
• Trump ends most U.S. sanctions on Syria, opening the door for foreign investment, but retains restrictions on Assad and affiliates3.
• U.S. approves $510 million JDAM precision-guidance kit sale to Israel following recent conflict with Iran4.
• G7 urges Iran to resume nuclear talks and restore IAEA access, supporting regional energy stability5.
• Canada scraps planned 3% digital services tax on U.S. tech giants like Amazon and Alphabet ; U.S.-Canada trade talks resume6.
• EU signals willingness to accept U.S. 10% universal tariff if key sectors are spared; negotiations ongoing7.
• U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods rise to 50%, driving up prices for China-made goods on Amazon 8.
• China extends anti-dumping duties on EU, UK, Korea, and Indonesia steel for five more years9.
• Euro hits $1.18, a 3.5-year high, on Fed rate-cut expectations and softer dollar; Eurozone spreads tighten15.
• Gold futures up 26% YTD, strongest first-half since 1979, on dollar weakness and rate-cut bets16.
• Robinhood launches tokenized U.S. stock trading in the EU; shares hit record high17.
• U.S. Bitcoin ETFs attract nearly $5 billion in 15 days19; SEC reviews Grayscale’s multi-asset spot crypto ETF18.

Commentary

Geopolitical risk remains elevated as Russia claims full control of Luhansk1, while Ukraine demonstrates expanded strike capability with a drone attack deep inside Russian territory2. These developments, alongside the U.S. move to replenish Israeli munitions4 and the G7’s continued pressure on Iran5, keep defense and energy market participants alert for further supply disruptions or escalation risk. The U.S. partial lifting of Syria sanctions could gradually reopen the country to foreign investment, but with key restrictions still in place, immediate market impact is likely limited3.

Trade policy remains a key driver of cross-asset volatility. U.S.-China tensions are intensifying, with tariffs on Chinese goods now at 50%, pushing up U.S. consumer prices and likely contributing to global supply chain adjustments8. China’s extension of steel duties on EU, UK, Korea, and Indonesia underscores persistent protectionism in metals9. Meanwhile, the EU is negotiating to limit the impact of a proposed U.S. 10% universal tariff, seeking carve-outs for strategic sectors7. Canada’s cancellation of its digital tax on U.S. tech firms like Amazon and Alphabet removes a bilateral friction point and has already supported North American equities6.

Currency and commodity markets are responding to these macro shifts. The euro’s rally to $1.18 reflects both Fed rate-cut expectations and relative stability in the Eurozone, with tighter bond spreads signaling capital inflows15. Gold ’s 26% YTD surge—the strongest first half since 1979—continues to be supported by a weaker dollar and anticipation of lower U.S. rates16. These trends are likely to persist if monetary policy expectations remain dovish and geopolitical risks stay elevated.

Digital assets are seeing strong momentum. Robinhood ’s launch of tokenized U.S. stock trading in the EU expands access to both equities and crypto, driving its shares to record highs17. U.S. Bitcoin ETFs continue to attract significant inflows19, and the SEC’s review of a multi-asset spot crypto ETF could further broaden institutional participation if approved18.

Traders should monitor further developments in Ukraine, U.S.-China/EU trade negotiations, and central bank policy signals. FX, commodities, and digital assets remain sensitive to both macro and geopolitical headlines as the second half of 2025 begins.