TL;DR

Trump signals early Fed chair pick; BLS shakeup clouds inflation data; oil, tech, and crypto move on sector news.

Highlights

• Trump signals an early pick for Fed Chair Powell’s successor, narrowing the field to 3–4 candidates 1.
• White House pressures Goldman Sachs over tariff research and replaces BLS chief, raising concerns about inflation data reliability and TIPS market volatility 2.
• Fed’s Goolsbee warns tariffs are “stagflationary,” keeps policy options open; markets fully price a September rate cut 15.
• U.S. small caps extend outperformance over megacap tech on rate-cut bets; Russell 2000 rallies 16.
• EIA projects record U.S. oil output in 2025, trims WTI/Brent price forecasts; crude inventories rise 3M barrels, pushing WTI near $63 67.
• Treasury Secretary Bessent floats 200% secondary sanctions on China at G-7, highlighting ongoing trade tensions 4.
• White House considers expanding Nvidia /AMD -style China chip revenue-sharing deals to other sectors; proceeds directed to U.S. debt reduction 320.
• Amazon expands same-day grocery delivery to 1,000+ cities, plans 2,300 by year-end; Instacart , Walmart , Kroger shares fall 10.
• Apple shares gain nearly 2% on reports of new AI hardware, including robots and smart displays 9.
• Bullish crypto exchange surges 143% in NYSE debut, signaling strong demand for digital-asset IPOs 11.
• Google Play mandates licensing for all crypto wallets, including non-custodial apps, increasing compliance costs for developers 12.
• Standard Chartered raises ether price target to $7,500 by year-end, citing institutional demand and new U.S. stablecoin regulation 19.

Commentary

Traders faced a busy session with policy, data, and sector rotation in focus. Trump’s indication of an early Fed chair announcement 1, combined with the White House’s intervention in economic data and research 2, is raising market sensitivity to the future direction of monetary policy and the reliability of official inflation statistics. This is particularly relevant for the $2.1T TIPS market and inflation-sensitive assets, as the replacement of the BLS head and criticism of Goldman Sachs ’ tariff analysis could undermine confidence in key economic indicators 2.

Fed’s Goolsbee reinforced the market’s dovish stance, warning that tariffs present persistent inflation and growth risks 15. Markets are now fully pricing a September rate cut 16, driving a continued rotation into small caps, which outperformed megacap tech as rate-sensitive stocks benefit from lower yield expectations 16.

Commodities saw further downside as the EIA raised its U.S. oil production outlook for 2025 and reported a surprise 3M-barrel inventory build 67. WTI crude slid to multi-month lows, with the IEA also flagging a potential global surplus in 2026 6. Energy equities and related credit remain under pressure, with traders watching for any developments from the upcoming Trump–Putin summit that could affect sanctions or supply 18.

In corporate news, Amazon ’s aggressive grocery delivery expansion is weighing on sector competitors and highlighting ongoing disruption in consumer retail 10. Apple ’s AI hardware pipeline lifted its shares 9, while Bullish’s strong NYSE debut and Standard Chartered’s bullish ether forecast underscore robust institutional interest in digital assets 1119, despite new regulatory hurdles for crypto wallet developers imposed by Google Play 12.

Geopolitically, the prospect of 200% secondary sanctions on China and potential expansion of chip revenue-sharing pacts signal that U.S.–China trade tensions remain a key risk for semiconductors and global supply chains 34. Traders should monitor late-session flows in small caps, energy, and crypto, as well as any policy headlines that could shift expectations for rates, trade, or Fed leadership.