TL;DR

U.S. futures rise on trade progress; dollar slumps on Fed concerns; oil, crypto, and tech in focus.

Highlights

• Canada rescinds 3% digital services tax on U.S. tech firms, resuming trade talks and targeting a July 2025 deal 1.
• U.S. dollar hits three-year low on Fed independence concerns; odds of rate cuts rise for July and September 2.
• S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures extend gains; June rally fueled by trade progress and Trump’s $4T tax-cut bill, now in Senate debate 8.
• CBO warns Trump’s tax bill could widen deficit by $3.3T; GOP faces narrow margin in Senate 4.
• Oil drops to $67 (Brent) as Mideast risks ease and OPEC+ signals August output hike; U.S. rig count at lowest since Oct 2021 3.
• MicroStrategy extends Bitcoin buying streak; Bitcoin set for record monthly close; S&P 500 eligibility in focus 9.
• Crypto funds see $2.7B in weekly inflows; Kazakhstan central bank plans Bitcoin reserve 1112.
• Moderna ’s mRNA flu shot outperforms standard vaccine in Phase 3, shares up 7% 10.
• Bybit and Kraken launch tokenized U.S. stock trading (not for U.S. residents), expanding crypto–equity links 13.
• UK–US trade deal cuts U.S. car tariffs on UK autos; South Korea and India seek U.S. trade concessions as tariff deadlines approach 141516.
• Russia launches record drone/missile barrage on Ukraine; Ukraine loses F-16, renews U.S. air-defense aid requests 5.
• Baidu open-sources Ernie 4.5 AI models, escalating global AI pricing competition 17.

Commentary

U.S. equity futures are higher, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq set to extend their record June rally 8. The positive tone is supported by progress on multiple trade fronts: Canada’s removal of its digital tax on U.S. tech giants restarts talks toward a new bilateral deal 1, while the UK–US trade agreement 14 and ongoing negotiations with South Korea 15 and India 16 suggest further tariff relief is possible. These developments are particularly supportive for tech, autos, and industrials.

The dollar’s sharp decline to a three-year low is a key cross-asset driver 2. Market participants are reacting to renewed concerns over Fed independence, with President Trump openly criticizing Chair Powell and floating possible replacements viewed as more dovish 2. Futures now price in a 25% chance of a July rate cut and a 92% probability of easing by September 2. The weaker dollar is fueling flows into risk assets, including equities and crypto, while Treasury yields edge lower and gold softens 2.

Oil prices are under pressure as the Mideast risk premium fades and OPEC+ signals another output increase for August 3. Brent is back near pre-conflict levels, and U.S. rig counts have dropped to multi-year lows, which may limit further downside if demand holds up 3. In crypto, MicroStrategy ’s continued Bitcoin accumulation and Kazakhstan’s reserve plans highlight institutional momentum, as crypto funds post another week of strong inflows 91211. Tokenization of U.S. stocks on crypto exchanges is advancing, but U.S. investors remain excluded for now 13.

On the policy side, the Senate’s debate over Trump’s $4 trillion tax-cut bill is a near-term risk factor 4. The CBO’s warning of a $3.3 trillion deficit and a slim GOP majority could inject volatility if additional Republican defections emerge 4. Moderna ’s strong flu vaccine data is a positive for biotech 10, while Baidu ’s open-sourcing of its AI models could pressure U.S. AI software margins 17.

Traders should stay alert for further trade headlines, the July 6 OPEC+ meeting 3, and Thursday’s U.S. jobs report, all of which could shift sentiment and cross-asset positioning.