TL;DR

Powell signals higher rates; oil drops on Iran deal hopes; UnitedHealth plunges on DOJ probe.

Highlights

• Fed Chair Powell signals risk of more frequent supply shocks and higher long-term rates as the Fed reviews its policy framework 1.
• April US PPI drops 0.5% (largest since 2020); retail sales up 0.1%; jobless claims steady at 229,000 2.
• Oil falls 4% (WTI $60.66, Brent $63.65) on signs of imminent US-Iran nuclear deal and potential sanctions relief 3.
• UnitedHealth plunges 18% to five-year lows after DOJ Medicare fraud probe and CEO resignation; $350B in market cap lost in a month 4.
• SEC probes Coinbase over allegedly inflated user numbers; shares drop 8% amid renewed regulatory scrutiny 5.
• Walmart to raise prices on toys, electronics, and groceries this month due to Trump tariffs, despite Q1 sales up 4.5% 6.
• BlackRock ’s Fink warns of 90 days of market turbulence tied to US deficits; Elliott flags capital flight risk from tariff policy 1617.
• UAE commits $1.4 trillion investment in US energy, tech, and chips over the next decade 15.
• Trump administration moves to roll back Biden-era renewable energy fee cuts, freezing wind project permits and reviewing $15B in grants 11.
• Google leads US AI patent filings; Salesforce launches usage-based AI pricing and acquires Convergence to boost its AI platform 1314.
• Tether mints $2B USDT on Tron; Mastercard and MoonPay launch crypto payments for 1.54B users 1920.
• EU threatens tighter Russia sanctions if Ukraine talks stall; Trump says no Ukraine progress until meeting with Putin; Putin reshuffles military leadership 8910.

Commentary

US markets are digesting a mix of macro, sector, and geopolitical developments. Powell’s remarks on the possibility of more persistent supply shocks and higher long-term rates reinforce the Fed’s cautious stance, even as April PPI data shows a notable drop and retail sales signal softer consumer momentum 12. The combination of cooling producer prices and steady jobless claims suggests inflationary pressures are easing, but the Fed is unlikely to pivot quickly given the risk of renewed shocks 12.

Energy is a key focus as oil prices tumble on expectations of a US-Iran nuclear deal, which could bring more Iranian crude to market and further pressure prices amid OPEC+ production increases 3. This move, if finalized, could influence inflation and benefit energy-importing sectors, while weighing on energy equities. Meanwhile, Walmart ’s planned price hikes in response to tariffs highlight the ongoing impact of trade policy on consumer goods and retail margins 6.

In equities, UnitedHealth ’s sharp decline following a DOJ fraud probe and leadership exit is driving volatility in healthcare, with broader implications for sentiment toward managed care names 4. The Trump administration’s review of renewable energy incentives and the UAE’s $1.4 trillion US investment pledge are shifting the landscape for energy, tech, and industrials, with potential for both headwinds and tailwinds depending on sector exposure 1115.

Crypto and fintech remain in the spotlight: Coinbase faces renewed regulatory scrutiny, Tether expands USDT issuance, and Mastercard ’s new crypto payment offerings signal continued growth in digital assets, though regulatory risk persists 51920. In AI, Google and Salesforce are ramping up innovation and commercialization efforts, reinforcing the sector’s competitive intensity 1314.

Geopolitical risk remains elevated with EU threats of tighter Russia sanctions, leadership changes in Russia’s military, and no progress in Ukraine talks until a Trump-Putin meeting 8910. Traders should remain alert for late-session moves tied to headlines on Fed policy, energy markets, and global trade.