TL;DR

US tightens China chip controls, GDP beats at 3.3%, Fed cut odds boost gold to record highs.

Highlights

• US revokes export waivers for Intel , Samsung, and SK Hynix’s China chip plants; 120-day transition before new license requirements12.
• Section 301 tariff exclusions on 178 Chinese import categories extended to Nov. 29, 20252.
• US Q2 GDP revised up to 3.3% annualized, beating expectations; Canadian GDP contracts 1.6% on US tariffs313.
• US core PCE inflation at 2.9% YoY in July, matching forecasts but above Fed’s 2% target4.
• Fed funds futures imply 87% probability of a September rate cut5.
• Gold trades near record highs above $3,500/oz as rate-cut expectations rise6.
• Affirm shares surge up to 22% on strong Q4 results and positive FY26 guidance7.
• BYD shares fall over 7% after Q2 profit drops 30% amid China EV price war8.
• PepsiCo invests $585M in Celsius, raising stake to 11%; Celsius shares up 7.6% pre-market14.
• CDC faces leadership upheaval and staff walkouts after director’s ouster9.
• Turkey halts all trade with Israel and closes airspace to Israeli planes10.

Commentary

US markets are processing a mix of macro, policy, and corporate news into the close. The revocation of chip equipment export waivers for Intel , Samsung, and SK Hynix’s China plants tightens US controls on advanced semiconductor technology, increasing supply chain uncertainty for global chipmakers with China exposure12. However, the extension of tariff exclusions on a broad set of Chinese imports signals a measured approach, balancing inflation concerns with ongoing tech restrictions2. Semis and related supply chain names may see added volatility as these changes take effect over the coming months.

On the macro front, US Q2 GDP was revised up to 3.3% annualized, reflecting resilient consumer and business spending3. This stands in sharp contrast to Canada’s 1.6% contraction, largely driven by new US tariffs on key Canadian exports313. Meanwhile, July core PCE inflation came in at 2.9%—still above the Fed’s target but in line with expectations4. Despite sticky inflation, futures markets are now pricing in an 87% chance of a Fed rate cut in September5, which is supporting gold near record highs and providing a tailwind for rate-sensitive equities6.

In corporate action, Affirm’s strong quarter and upbeat guidance are driving a sharp rally in fintech7, while PepsiCo’s $585M investment to lift its Celsius stake highlights ongoing M&A and partnership momentum in beverages14. BYD’s profit miss and share drop serve as a caution for global EV exposure to China’s margin pressures8. The CDC’s leadership crisis and staff walkouts introduce a new risk for US public health infrastructure, though immediate market impact appears limited9.

Geopolitical risk is elevated as Turkey halts all trade with Israel and closes its airspace, adding a new layer of uncertainty for regional markets and potentially for energy flows if tensions escalate further10.