TL;DR

Trump slaps 39% Swiss tariffs; Fed succession, OPEC+ output, gold near highs, volatility jumps.

Highlights

• Trump imposes 39% tariff on Swiss imports; Swiss officials seek urgent talks, SNB seen cutting rates 1.
• U.S. administration accelerates Fed Chair Powell succession search; new BLS chief and Fed governor nominations expected 2.
• OPEC+ raises September oil output by 547,000 bpd; Brent drops below $69, Goldman forecasts $56 in 2026 5.
• BP announces largest oil and gas discovery in 25 years off Brazil, boosting shares 6.
• Gold trades near record highs; Citi raises 3-month target to $3,500/oz on safe-haven demand and weaker dollar 12.
• U.S. jobs data miss intensifies Fed rate cut bets; Asian equities fall, JGB yields drop, dollar softens 710.
• Tesla grants Musk $29B pay package, shares up pre-market; China July deliveries down 8.4% 39.
• SEC and CFTC unveil coordinated digital asset regulation; crypto prices stabilize, institutional optimism rises 8.
• Volatility spikes: VIX up 42% this week, S&P 500 down 3.2% from record; quant funds pressured 11.
• Joby Aviation acquires Blade ’s passenger business for $125M, accelerating U.S./EU air taxi rollout; both stocks rally pre-market 19.
• UBS settles Credit Suisse mortgage case with $300M DOJ payment, freeing up provisions for Q3 16.

Commentary

Markets begin the week with heightened caution as U.S. trade policy tightens further. The Trump administration’s 39% tariff on Swiss imports, following recent hikes on Canada and others, signals a broadening protectionist stance 1. Swiss officials are scrambling to negotiate, and expectations are mounting for a Swiss National Bank rate cut to offset the economic hit 1. The move adds to global supply chain and inflation risks, particularly as China continues to restrict exports of critical minerals, pressuring Western manufacturing and defense sectors 4.

Weaker-than-expected U.S. payrolls data have shifted rate expectations, with markets now pricing in a possible 50bp Fed cut in September 710. This has pushed gold near record highs, with Citi raising its near-term target to $3,500/oz 12, and sent the dollar lower against major currencies 710. Asian equities and U.S. futures are under pressure, JGB yields have dropped 10, and volatility has spiked—VIX is up 42% this week, S&P 500 down over 3% from recent highs 11. Quant funds are feeling the strain as systematic strategies struggle in the choppy environment, and insider buying remains subdued 11.

In energy, OPEC+’s output increase and BP ’s significant Brazil discovery have weighed on oil prices, with Brent now below $69 and further downside seen by Goldman Sachs 56. Tesla shares are up pre-market after a new $29B Musk pay package 3, but China sales remain weak, highlighting ongoing EV competition 9. On the regulatory front, the SEC and CFTC’s coordinated push for clearer digital asset rules has stabilized crypto prices and improved institutional sentiment 8.

Other notable moves include Joby Aviation ’s $125M acquisition of Blade ’s passenger business, accelerating air taxi deployment in the U.S. and Europe, and UBS resolving a major Credit Suisse legacy case, freeing up capital for Q3 1916. Traders should monitor further trade retaliation risks, Fed leadership headlines, and cross-asset volatility as the session opens.