Highlights

• The U.S. escalates its trade war, imposing 145% tariffs on Chinese goods and 25% on Japanese autos; China retaliates with 125% tariffs, sharply contracting bilateral trade and triggering global supply chain disruptions 1.
• EU prepares €100 billion in retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods if trade talks fail, as President Trump’s administration threatens broader levies on European exports 2.
• Major U.S. corporates including Ford , Mattel , and Cummins withdraw 2025 guidance, citing tariff-driven cost surges and production shifts; Ford estimates a $1.5 billion earnings hit 3.
• Gold surges over 26% YTD, jumping nearly $100 in a day on safe-haven demand amid tariff escalation and ahead of the Fed meeting 8.
• U.S. crude oil output has peaked, with Diamondback Energy forecasting a 10% rig decline as OPEC+ regains market share; global inventories remain tight 7.
• BlackRock ’s Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) buys 26,000 BTC ($2.5B) in a week, fueling a supply squeeze as ETF inflows far outpace new coin issuance 10.
• China’s services PMI drops to a 7-month low (50.7), signaling a slowdown as U.S. tariffs bite; economists warn of rising deflation and job risks 11.
• Philips cuts 2025 profit outlook by €250–300 million due to 25% U.S. tariffs, accelerates U.S. production shift; shares pressured by China demand weakness 19.
• Warren Buffett to retire as Berkshire Hathaway CEO, naming Greg Abel as successor; Buffett warns on U.S. fiscal deficit 5.
• Israel orders evacuation of Sana’a airport, signaling first direct strike on Yemen; Hamas rejects ceasefire talks as Israel plans mass displacement in Gaza, deepening Middle East tensions 620.
• EU to propose full ban on Russian gas imports by 2027, including existing contracts; timeline depends on alternative supply deals 12.
• DoorDash to acquire Deliveroo for $3.9B, expanding global food delivery footprint; deal details expected with Q1 results 13.

Commentary

Markets face a volatile open as the global trade war intensifies, with the U.S. imposing steep tariffs on China and Japan, and the EU preparing a massive retaliatory package 12. This escalation is already rippling through corporate earnings: Ford , Mattel , Cummins , and Philips have all withdrawn or lowered guidance, citing direct tariff impacts and production disruptions 319. The uncertainty is eroding business confidence, threatening global growth, and fueling defensive positioning across asset classes 1.

Safe-haven flows are pronounced, with gold up over 26% year-to-date and spiking nearly $100 in a single session as investors hedge against policy and geopolitical risk 8. The dollar is broadly weaker, as evidenced by the HKMA’s intervention to defend the Hong Kong dollar peg 9, while Bitcoin and tokenized real-world assets are seeing strong inflows—BlackRock ’s ETF alone is absorbing more BTC than is newly mined, suggesting a looming supply squeeze and further upside risk for crypto 1018.

Equities are under pressure, particularly in sectors exposed to global supply chains and discretionary spending. Industrial, auto, and consumer names with China or tariff exposure are likely to see continued volatility, while defensive sectors and commodity-linked plays (e.g., gold miners, energy) may outperform 319. The peaking of U.S. crude production and OPEC+ regaining market share could support oil prices, but near-term demand risks from slowing global trade and China’s services slump temper the upside 711.

Geopolitical tensions add further complexity: Israel’s threat of direct strikes in Yemen and the deepening Gaza crisis heighten Middle East risk premiums, with potential spillovers into energy markets 620. Meanwhile, the EU’s move to ban Russian gas by 2027 raises long-term questions about European energy security and LNG demand 12.

Traders should closely monitor U.S. and EU trade negotiations, corporate earnings revisions, and safe-haven flows into gold and crypto. Watch for further guidance withdrawals, supply chain warnings, and policy signals from the Fed meeting. Defensive positioning remains prudent amid high uncertainty, with opportunities in commodities, select defensives, and digital assets as volatility persists.