TL;DR

OPEC+ hikes oil output; U.S. doubles metal tariffs; Nvidia warns of $8B China hit.

Highlights

• OPEC+ confirmed a July oil output hike of 411,000 bpd; Brent and WTI fell for a second week, while Canadian wildfires threaten 4–5% of Canada’s crude production 12.
• U.S. rig count dropped to its lowest since November 2021, with oil rigs down for a fifth straight week 1.
• Trump administration doubled U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% (effective June 4); federal court restored 10% global tariffs pending review 34.
• U.S. and EU suspended LEAP-1C engine exports to China’s COMAC, escalating tech tensions and impacting the C919 program 5.
• Nvidia posted 69% YoY revenue growth on AI demand, but forecasts an $8B China sales hit due to U.S. chip export controls NVDA 6.
• IAEA reported Iran’s 60%-enriched uranium stockpile now sufficient for nine nuclear bombs; U.S. proposed a regional nuclear consortium outside Iran, with Tehran’s response pending 78.
• Hamas offered a hostage deal tied to a permanent Gaza truce; Israel and U.S. rejected the terms, and Israel blocked a Saudi-led ministerial visit to Ramallah 910.
• Russia transferred advanced Pantsir air defense systems to North Korea after Nov 2024 amid reciprocal arms support; Germany blocked Taurus missiles to Ukraine and is reviewing arms exports to Israel NATO 1112.
• Sweden to tighten Baltic Sea controls from July 1, targeting Russia’s shadow oil fleet with stricter inspections 13.
• Ukraine to default on a $665M GDP warrant payment due June 2 after failed restructuring talks 14.
• Japanese equities saw a record $12B weekly outflow; global stocks lost $9.5B, while EM equities and crypto saw inflows; Bitcoin ETFs posted a $616M net outflow 1815.
• South Korea’s May exports fell 1.3% YoY, led by declines to the U.S. and China amid U.S. tariffs; semiconductors hit a record high 16.
• U.S. senators advanced a new Russia sanctions bill with 500% tariffs on countries buying Russian energy; Putin signed a decree allowing government control of defense firms under martial law 1719.
• China warned the U.S. to halt Taiwan arms sales, calling it a red line, and opposed further missile defense deployments 20.

Commentary

Commodity markets remain volatile as OPEC+ confirmed a July production hike, pushing oil prices lower for a second week 1. The impact of increased supply is being partially offset by Canadian wildfires, which threaten up to 5% of Canada’s crude output 2, and ongoing U.S. rig count declines, now at multi-year lows 1. These supply-side risks may limit further downside in oil, but for now, the market is focused on OPEC+ policy and global trade frictions.

Trade and tech tensions are front and center. The Trump administration’s doubling of steel and aluminum tariffs, restoration of 10% global tariffs 34, and export controls on advanced technology are beginning to show up in trade data—South Korea’s exports to the U.S. and China fell sharply 16, and Japanese equities saw record outflows on yen strength and global uncertainty 15. The suspension of LEAP-1C engine sales to China’s COMAC will disrupt the C919 program and could have knock-on effects for U.S. and European aerospace suppliers 5. Nvidia’s strong AI-driven results are overshadowed by an $8B expected sales hit in China, highlighting the real earnings risk from U.S.–China tech restrictions NVDA 6.

Geopolitical risk remains elevated. The IAEA’s report on Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile and the new U.S. proposal for a regional nuclear consortium keep Middle East risk in focus 78. In Europe, Russia’s transfer of advanced air defense systems to North Korea and Germany’s hesitancy on Taurus missiles for Ukraine add complexity to the security landscape NATO 1112. Sweden’s new Baltic Sea controls will further constrain Russian oil logistics 13, while the U.S. Senate’s push for 500% tariffs on Russian energy buyers signals potential for further disruption in global commodity flows 17.

In capital markets, risk-off sentiment drove $12B out of Japanese equities and $9.5B from global stocks, while emerging markets and crypto attracted inflows 15. Bitcoin ETFs saw their largest net outflow to date, suggesting profit-taking after recent highs 18. Ukraine’s default on GDP warrants is likely to weigh on EM credit sentiment 14. Traders should continue to monitor volatility in oil, semiconductors, and defense, and stay alert to headlines on trade, tech, and geopolitics for cross-asset positioning.