TL;DR

Trump’s copper tariffs drive record prices; Houthi attacks lift oil; TSMC, Bitcoin hit new highs.

Highlights

• Trump imposes 50% tariffs on all U.S. copper imports from August, sending copper futures to record highs; Brazil faces matching 50% tariffs, sparking a >2% drop in the real and emergency talks in Brasília 1.
• U.S. expands tariffs (20–30%) to exports from the Philippines, Brunei, Moldova, Algeria, Iraq, Libya, and Sri Lanka, with further escalation possible 4.
• Japanese automakers cut U.S. export prices by 20% in May to absorb new tariffs, pressuring margins and raising prospects for more U.S. production 7.
• Houthi militants sink a Greek bulk carrier off Yemen, killing four and disrupting Red Sea shipping; Brent crude rises to a two-week high 3.
• OPEC lowers medium-term oil demand forecasts on China slowdown and EV adoption but maintains long-term demand growth outlook through 2050 5.
• TSMC Q2 revenue jumps 39% on AI chip demand, beating estimates; full earnings and guidance due July 17 10.
• Nvidia CEO to visit Beijing ahead of September launch of China-specific AI chip, seeking to maintain market share amid export controls 11.
• Bitcoin sets new record above $112,000; BlackRock’s IBIT now third-largest ETF in lineup as spot bitcoin ETF inflows top $50B 620.
• Chinese real estate developers rally sharply on speculation of new state support measures; Hang Seng property gauge posts nine-month high 18.
• Bank of Korea holds rates at 2.5% amid Seoul housing surge and external risks; further cuts possible if leverage cools 8.
• NATO adopts 5% GDP defense spending goal, citing Trump’s influence; European defense budgets and procurement set to rise 9.
• Russia escalates Ukraine conflict with record drone attack and $50B in asset seizures to fund military spending; European agencies warn of increased Russian sabotage activity 21516.

Commentary

Trade tensions remain a central risk for global markets. The U.S. move to impose 50% tariffs on copper and Brazilian imports has driven copper futures to record levels and pressured EM currencies, notably the Brazilian real 1. The broader tariff campaign—now targeting multiple smaller economies—adds uncertainty to global supply chains and could prompt further retaliatory measures 4. Japanese automakers’ decision to absorb tariffs through sharp price cuts highlights the margin pressure facing exporters and the potential for accelerated onshoring of production 7.

Commodity and energy markets are being shaped by both supply disruptions and shifting demand outlooks. Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have sunk another commercial vessel, reducing shipping activity through a key global corridor and lifting Brent crude prices 3. OPEC’s downward revision of near-term oil demand, citing China’s slowdown and EV adoption, contrasts with its long-term bullishness, reinforcing a mixed outlook for energy equities and related assets 5.

Tech and crypto remain in focus. TSMC ’s strong quarter on AI chip demand and Nvidia ’s upcoming China-specific product launch underscore the ongoing strength in the semiconductor and AI space, even as U.S.-China tech tensions persist 1011. Bitcoin ’s new all-time high and surging ETF inflows point to continued institutional adoption, though regulatory scrutiny of tokenized securities could temper some enthusiasm 61920.

In Asia, China’s property sector saw a sharp rally on expectations of imminent policy support, while the Bank of Korea’s rate hold reflects a balancing act between a housing boom and external trade threats 818. In Europe, NATO’s new 5% defense spending goal signals a significant ramp-up in military budgets, likely to benefit defense contractors amid ongoing geopolitical risks, including Russia’s intensified actions in Ukraine and increased sabotage activity across the continent 291516.

Traders should closely monitor further U.S. tariff announcements, Red Sea shipping developments, OPEC demand commentary, tech sector earnings (TSMC July 17), and policy signals from Beijing on real estate. Defensive positioning in EM FX and supply chain-sensitive sectors may be warranted, while selective exposure to AI/tech, energy, and defense could benefit from current trends.