Highlights

• U.S. equity futures surge (Dow +600 pts, S&P 500 +2.4%, Nasdaq 100 +2.8%) after Trump rules out firing Fed Chair Powell and signals softer China trade stance; dollar rallies, gold drops12.
• Trump pledges to "substantially" lower China tariffs from 145%, adopting a conciliatory tone ahead of new trade talks; S&P 500 futures and major tech stocks rise21.
• IMF slashes 2025 global growth forecast to 2.8% (U.S. to 1.8%) citing tariff-driven uncertainty; U.S. recession risk raised to 40%7.
• Intel to cut over 20% of workforce (~20,000 jobs) in CEO Lip-Bu Tan’s restructuring; shares up 3.3% premarket4.
• Tesla Q1 profit plunges 71% on weak demand and competition, but shares jump 5% after Musk vows renewed focus on company3.
• EU fines Apple €500M and Meta €200M under Digital Markets Act; both vow to appeal, risking trans-Atlantic tech tensions5.
• U.S. Bitcoin ETFs see record $912.7M inflow, led by ARK, Fidelity, BlackRock; total ETF assets top $100B, signaling renewed crypto interest8.
• Vertiv Holdings surges 20% premarket after Q1 beat and raised AI-driven guidance10.
• U.S. Leading Index falls 0.7%, mortgage rates hit 6.9% (highest since Feb); mortgage apps plunge 12.7% as housing sector weakens14.
• China warns South Korea to halt rare earth exports to U.S. defense firms, escalating supply chain risks6.
• Yemen’s Houthis fire hypersonic missile at Israel, target U.S. Navy, down drone; Middle East tensions persist9.
• U.S. Education Dept. to resume collections on 5M defaulted student loans May 5, adding consumer headwinds18.

Commentary

Markets are opening with a decisive risk-on tone, driven by a sharp reversal in White House rhetoric. President Trump’s assurance that Fed Chair Powell will remain in place, coupled with unexpectedly dovish trade remarks toward China, has unleashed a rally in U.S. equity futures and major tech names12. The dollar’s surge and gold’s pullback underline a shift in risk appetite, even as the IMF’s global growth downgrade and recession warnings linger in the background7.

The renewed optimism on trade—Trump’s pledge to sharply reduce China tariffs—has overshadowed the IMF’s sobering growth cut and the persistent drag from tariffs on global supply chains27. However, the underlying macro signals remain mixed: the U.S. Leading Index fell more than expected, mortgage rates are at cycle highs, and housing activity is deteriorating14. Fixed income markets are seeing strong demand for short-term Treasuries, nudging yields lower, suggesting that not all investors are buying into the equity euphoria14.

Tech and AI remain in the spotlight. Intel’s sweeping layoffs and Vertiv’s blowout AI-driven results highlight the sector’s ongoing transformation410. Meanwhile, Apple and Meta face mounting regulatory risk in Europe, potentially stoking U.S.-EU trade friction just as Washington and Brussels negotiate on tariffs5. Tesla’s profit miss is being shrugged off as Musk promises renewed focus, but the broader auto sector faces uncertainty with looming U.S. parts tariffs and industry pleas for delay317.

Commodities and geopolitics are adding complexity. China’s move to restrict South Korean rare earth exports to U.S. defense firms raises the specter of new supply chain disruptions6. In energy, activist pressure on BP and EU moves to cut Russian gas imports point to continued volatility1216. Middle East risks remain elevated after Houthi missile attacks on Israel and U.S. assets9. Meanwhile, crypto is seeing a resurgence, with Bitcoin ETFs drawing record inflows as investors seek alternatives amid policy and inflation uncertainty8.

Traders should watch for follow-through in equity momentum, potential reversals in rates and FX as macro data and Fed commentary come into focus, and any escalation in trade or geopolitical tensions that could quickly sour sentiment. Sector rotation into AI, tech, and crypto is likely to persist, but defensive positioning may reassert if macro or geopolitical risks intensify. Stay nimble—headline risk remains high across all asset classes.