TL;DR

Russia-Ukraine talks resume; U.S.-China ease tariffs but escalate tech war; oil drops on Iran deal hopes.

Highlights

• Russia and Ukraine resume direct talks in Istanbul after three years; Putin, Trump, and possibly Zelensky absent1.
• China suspends export controls on 28 U.S. entities and pauses restrictions on 17 more for 90 days2.
• U.S. bans global use of Huawei Ascend chips, extending export controls extraterritorially3.
• White House scales back Trump-era China tariffs after domestic economic pushback4.
• Oil drops up to 4% as Trump signals U.S.-Iran nuclear deal progress; Iran signals readiness if sanctions are lifted56.
• Israeli airstrikes kill at least 70 in Gaza during Trump’s Middle East trip; Spain halts trade with Israel78.
• Estonian Navy attempts to detain Russian shadow fleet tanker; Russian jet violates Estonian airspace9.
• India and Pakistan announce ceasefire after deadly clashes; India calls for IAEA oversight of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal1011.
• UK and Germany to jointly develop 2,000-km precision strike weapon, expand defense cooperation12.
• Japanese automakers, led by Honda, project $19B in losses due to U.S. tariffs13.
• Qatar Airways places $96B Boeing order as U.S.-Qatar deals reach $1.2T14.
• AMD stock rises 5% on $6B buyback and $10B Saudi AI chip deal; JPMorgan settles tokenized Treasuries on public blockchain1516.
• EU finds TikTok in breach of Digital Services Act, risking up to 6% of global revenue in fines17.
• Russia’s central bank names Bitcoin top-performing asset YTD; Hong Kong’s Avenir now Asia’s largest holder of BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF 1920.

Commentary

Geopolitical risk remains front and center. The Russia-Ukraine talks in Istanbul are a notable diplomatic development, but the absence of key leaders limits immediate impact on risk assets1. Meanwhile, security tensions in the Baltics and ongoing violence in Gaza, plus Spain's trade freeze with Israel, keep the focus on European and Middle Eastern risk premiums789. The UK-Germany defense partnership signals further European rearmament, likely supporting defense equities and related industrials12.

In trade and tech, the landscape is mixed. China’s suspension of some export controls and the U.S. move to scale back tariffs suggest a tactical pause in U.S.-China trade friction, which could briefly support global risk sentiment and U.S.-China exposed equities24. However, the U.S. ban on Huawei Ascend chips—enforced globally—underscores persistent tech sector headwinds and could pressure semiconductor supply chains, with further scrutiny likely for firms with China exposure3. Japanese automakers are already feeling the pain, with Honda and peers projecting sharp profit declines due to tariffs, weighing on Japanese equities and potentially the yen13.

Energy markets are reacting to Middle East developments. Brent and WTI fell sharply on expectations of a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal, which could bring Iranian supply back online56. However, regional instability persists, so oil volatility remains elevated. The $96B Qatar Airways Boeing order and broader $1.2T U.S.-Qatar deals highlight ongoing Gulf-U.S. economic ties, supporting U.S. industrials and aerospace14.

Digital assets and fintech are seeing institutional momentum. JPMorgan ’s first public blockchain settlement in Treasuries marks incremental progress in traditional finance adoption of DeFi16. Bitcoin ’s outperformance, officially recognized by Russia’s central bank and supported by large ETF inflows in Asia, signals continued institutional demand, especially as some emerging market currencies weaken1920.

Traders should monitor further developments in U.S.-China trade/tech policy, Middle East negotiations, and European security. Sector focus: defense, autos, semis, energy, and digital assets.