TL;DR

Nvidia, AMD resume China AI chip sales with 15% levy; tariff truce expires; gold imports untariffed.

Highlights

• • Nvidia and AMD will resume some AI chip sales to China, diverting 15% of related revenue to the U.S. government; exports of Nvidia’s latest Blackwell chips remain banned 1.
• • The 90-day U.S.-China tariff truce expires Tuesday with no extension confirmed, raising risk of renewed tariffs on Chinese imports 4.
• • Trump clarified gold imports will remain exempt from tariffs, steadying bullion markets after last week’s record futures spike 5.
• • Micron raised its Q4 outlook on stronger DRAM pricing, citing AI server demand; shares rose 7% 7.
• • Orsted shares fell nearly 30% after a $9.4B rights issue to stabilize finances amid U.S. offshore wind policy setbacks 10.
• • Monday.com dropped 28% despite beating revenue estimates, as growth outlook was clouded by Google search algorithm changes 11.
• • OpenAI is in talks for a secondary share sale at a $500B valuation, reflecting rapid revenue and user growth 12.
• • Ethereum topped $4,000 for the first time since 2021, triggering major short liquidations; Nakamoto CEO plans a $1B Bitcoin buy tomorrow 89.
• • U.S. Steel ’s Clairton plant explosion killed one and injured dozens, disrupting North America’s largest coking facility 16.
• • Bank of America survey found a record 91% of fund managers view U.S. stocks as overvalued, with stagflation concerns persisting 17.
• • Ford increased its EV investment budget to $5B, targeting a $30,000 electric pickup and expanded U.S. manufacturing 14.

Commentary

Semiconductors remain in focus as Nvidia and AMD secured partial U.S. approval to resume AI chip exports to China, but must divert 15% of related revenue to the U.S. Treasury 1. While this preserves access to a key market, the margin impact and continued ban on Nvidia’s top-end Blackwell chips highlight ongoing policy risk for the sector 2. Micron ’s raised outlook, driven by strong DRAM pricing and AI server demand, underscores resilience in memory and AI hardware, supporting sector sentiment 7.

Trade policy uncertainty is back in play as the U.S.-China tariff truce expires tomorrow with no extension confirmed 4. This could lead to higher import costs and renewed supply chain pressures for U.S. companies with China exposure. Meanwhile, Trump’s clarification that gold imports will not be tariffed reversed last week’s bullion market volatility, narrowing price spreads and stabilizing precious metals 5.

Equity markets saw sharp moves in select names: Orsted’s 30% drop after a large rights issue reflects the impact of U.S. offshore wind policy headwinds on renewables 10, while Monday.com ’s 28% decline despite strong revenue points to market sensitivity around growth outlooks and customer acquisition trends 11. The Bank of America fund manager survey signals broad caution, with a record share of managers calling U.S. equities overvalued and stagflation worries persisting 17.

Crypto remains active, with Ethereum breaking above $4,000 and a $1B Bitcoin buy order from Nakamoto’s CEO expected tomorrow 89. These developments, along with OpenAI’s potential $500B valuation in a secondary share sale, highlight ongoing investor appetite for AI and digital assets 12. The U.S. Steel Clairton plant explosion adds near-term risk to steel and coke supply chains 16.

Traders should watch for any late headlines on the U.S.-China tariff situation 4, further fallout from the U.S. Steel incident 16, and continued volatility in AI, crypto, and renewables names into the close.