TL;DR

Robinhood, Oracle, Meta hit records; Fed cut seen in September; dollar posts worst H1 since 1973.

Highlights

• Robinhood shares jump 10% to record high after launching tokenized US stock and ETF trading in the EU; plans to expand to thousands of stocks by year-end 1.
• Oracle rises 8.6% to all-time high on disclosure of >$30B annual cloud contract starting FY2028 4.
• Meta Platforms hits new record, nearly 9x above 2022 lows; seeks $29B for AI data center buildout 1620.
• US banks rally after all major institutions clear Fed stress tests, enabling higher capital returns 20.
• Goldman Sachs moves up forecast for first Fed rate cut to September; market now prices multiple cuts by end-2026 5.
• US Dollar Index down 10% YTD—worst first half since 1973—on deficit, Fed policy, and political pressure 3.
• Trump presses Powell for 1% rates; Treasury Secretary Bessent signals willingness to lead Fed 67.
• Senate holds marathon votes on $3.3T tax-and-spending bill, including potential crypto tax reforms; July 4 deadline looms 814.
• MicroStrategy buys $532M in Bitcoin , now S&P 500 eligible; SEC reviews Grayscale’s multi-asset crypto ETF; REX-Osprey to launch first US Solana staking ETF; Supreme Court lets IRS access Coinbase user records; White House backs capital-gains tax relief for Bitcoin payments under $600 1112131415.
• US warns tariffs could rise to 11–50% on July 9 without new trade deals; Canada talks resume after digital tax dropped 29.
• AbbVie acquires Capstan Therapeutics for up to $2.1B, expanding in in-vivo CAR-T 17.
• US judge orders Argentina to hand over 51% of YPF in $16B dispute; YPF falls 6% 10.
• Trump to end most US Syria sanctions; US issues 90-day terror alert over Iranian cyber risks 1819.

Commentary

US equities are broadly higher into the close, led by tech and financials. Robinhood ’s EU tokenized stock launch 1 and Oracle ’s multi-billion-dollar cloud contract 4 have driven outsized gains in both names, while Meta continues its relentless rally on AI and data center expansion 1620. Bank stocks are also in focus after all major US lenders passed the Fed’s annual stress tests, clearing the way for increased dividends and buybacks 20.

Macro themes remain volatile. The dollar is posting its worst first half in over 50 years, pressured by deficit expansion, political interference in Fed policy, and shifting rate expectations 3. Goldman Sachs now expects the first Fed cut in September 5, and President Trump is escalating pressure on Powell for aggressive easing 6. Treasury Secretary Bessent’s openness to chairing the Fed signals further alignment with the administration’s policy stance 7.

Crypto markets are active: MicroStrategy’s $532M Bitcoin buy and S&P 500 eligibility could spur passive flows 11, while the SEC’s review of Grayscale’s multi-asset ETF 12 and the launch of a Solana staking ETF 15 mark further institutionalization. The Senate’s tax bill could include major crypto tax relief 14, but the Supreme Court’s Coinbase ruling signals tougher IRS enforcement ahead 13.

On the policy front, the risk of a July 9 tariff snap-back remains for US trading partners 2, though Canada talks have resumed after Ottawa dropped its digital tax 9. In healthcare, AbbVie ’s $2.1B Capstan deal continues the trend of biotech M&A 17. Meanwhile, a US judge’s order for Argentina to hand over its YPF stake has hit the stock 10, and Trump’s move to unwind most Syria sanctions could open new regional investment flows, though it comes amid heightened US terror and cyber alerts 1819.

Traders should monitor late-session moves in rates, the dollar, and Senate developments on the tax bill and crypto amendment 814, as well as headline risk from trade and geopolitical fronts 218.