TL;DR

Trump to hike steel and chip tariffs; retail sales steady, sentiment weakens; UnitedHealth, Alphabet surge.

Highlights

• Trump to impose new tariffs on imported steel next week and on semiconductors the following week; chip tariffs could rise to 100–300% over time, with possible exemptions for firms investing in U.S. facilities 1.
• Trump and Putin meet in Alaska for Ukraine ceasefire talks; U.S. signals possible security guarantees for Kyiv outside NATO 2.
• U.S. retail sales rose 0.5% in July, matching expectations; June revised higher; Michigan consumer sentiment fell to 58.6 with inflation expectations rising to 4.9% for the next year 168.
• Alphabet hits record highs above $206, driven by AI optimism and anticipation of a favorable court ruling 11.
• UnitedHealth surges 13% after Berkshire Hathaway reveals a new stake; Nucor up 6% on Berkshire buying; Applied Materials drops 14% on weak guidance and U.S.-China chip tensions 5.
• Solar stocks rally after Treasury guidance allows retroactive clean-energy tax credits; Sunrun up 28%, Nextracker up 12% 7.
• CoreWeave falls 22% post-IPO lockup as JPMorgan and insiders sell shares 6.
• Fed ends “Novel Activities” crypto oversight, returning digital asset supervision to routine bank exams 3.
• Brevan Howard discloses $2.3B stake in BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF; other institutions increase Bitcoin ETF holdings 4.
• New York Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index jumps to 11.9, beating forecasts; employment growth slows 9.
• WASDE: U.S. corn stocks rise above forecast; soybean and cotton stocks fall; crude inventories build unexpectedly; oil rigs increase by one 17.
• Fed’s Goolsbee urges caution on inflation uptick, signals rates need not stay high if data moderates 20.

Commentary

U.S. equities are navigating a session defined by trade policy, macro data, and sector rotation. The announcement of new tariffs on steel and semiconductors by President Trump is a clear escalation in trade policy, with potential for significant impact on tech and industrial supply chains 1. The prospect of chip tariffs reaching up to 300% introduces headline risk for semiconductor and electronics names, especially as details and potential exemptions are awaited 1. Meanwhile, the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska introduces geopolitical uncertainty, with the outcome of Ukraine ceasefire talks and possible U.S. security guarantees for Kyiv likely to influence defense and energy sectors 2.

On the macro front, July retail sales met expectations, showing continued consumer resilience 16, but the drop in Michigan sentiment and higher inflation expectations point to growing consumer unease 8. The Empire State Manufacturing Index surprised to the upside, indicating regional factory strength 9, though broader industrial production remains mixed 16. Fed Governor Goolsbee’s comments suggest the central bank is monitoring inflation closely but is not committed to keeping rates elevated if data moderates 20, leaving fixed income markets attentive to upcoming inflation prints and Fed signals.

Sector-wise, institutional flows are moving markets. UnitedHealth and Nucor rallied on Berkshire Hathaway’s new stakes, while Applied Materials fell sharply on weak guidance and ongoing U.S.-China chip tensions 5. Solar stocks outperformed after Treasury guidance improved clean-energy project economics 7. In crypto, the Fed’s return to routine oversight 3 and Brevan Howard’s large Bitcoin ETF position 4 highlight ongoing institutional adoption. CoreWeave’s post-lockup decline underscores continued pressure on recent IPOs and blockchain-adjacent equities 6.

Commodities saw mixed signals: WASDE data showed higher corn stocks and lower soybean/cotton stocks, which could pressure respective ag futures. Crude inventories unexpectedly rose, limiting upside in energy despite a small increase in active oil rigs 17.

Traders should watch for further details on the tariff rollout and any late headlines from the Alaska summit, as both could trigger end-of-day volatility 12. Sector rotation and institutional positioning remain key drivers into the close.