TL;DR

U.S.-China trade deal advances; gold overtakes euro in reserves; Tesla, Ouster, stablecoins rally.

Highlights

• U.S. and China agree on a trade framework to ease rare earth and magnet restrictions; awaits Trump-Xi approval 110.
• China grants JL Mag Rare-Earth export licenses to U.S., EU, and Southeast Asia ahead of trade talks 14.
• Boeing seeks tariff exemptions for aircraft and parts as U.S.-China negotiations continue 10.
• ECB President Lagarde warns in Beijing that trade protectionism risks a global downturn 11.
• Gold surpasses the euro as the world’s second-largest reserve asset; U.S. dollar’s share of reserves drops to 58% 3.
• U.S. Treasury raises $58B in 3-year notes at 3.972% with slightly weaker demand; 10-year reopening scheduled today 5.
• U.S. mortgage applications jump 12.5% despite 30-year rates rising to 6.93% 5.
• Iran threatens to target U.S. bases if conflict erupts; Russia offers to remove Iran’s surplus nuclear material to support U.S.–Iran talks 49.
• Tesla shares rebound nearly 2% after Musk softens stance on Trump; driverless Model Y seen in Austin, robotaxi launch targeted for June 22 27.
• Ouster jumps 17% pre-market after Pentagon clears its OS1 lidar for military drones 8.
• Stablecoin market tops $250B, driven by Tron inflows and launch of Trump-backed WLFI’s USD1 18.
• Nvidia CEO signals quantum computing nearing real-world use; IBM targets large-scale quantum computer by 2029 15.

Commentary

U.S.-China trade developments headline the session, with both sides reaching a framework to resolve rare earth and magnet restrictions—a key supply chain concern for U.S. tech, autos, and defense 110. China’s approval of JL Mag Rare-Earth export licenses 14 and Boeing ’s push for tariff exemptions 10 suggest incremental progress, though final implementation still hinges on Trump-Xi approval 110. This should provide some relief to industrials and tech stocks exposed to trade friction, but sector-specific risks remain as negotiations continue.

Macro signals are mixed. The ECB’s Lagarde, speaking in Beijing, highlighted the risk that escalating protectionism could undermine global growth 11, echoing market concerns about persistent trade tensions. Meanwhile, central bank reserve data show gold overtaking the euro as the second-largest reserve asset, with the U.S. dollar’s share at a multi-decade low 3. This shift may support gold prices and underscores ongoing diversification away from traditional fiat reserves 3.

In U.S. rates, the Treasury’s 3-year auction saw slightly weaker demand and higher yields, while mortgage applications surged despite rates edging up to 6.93% 5. The upcoming 10-year reopening will be closely watched for further signs of demand and potential implications for yields and rate-sensitive equities 5.

On the corporate front, Tesla shares are rebounding as Musk moves to de-escalate his feud with Trump 2 and the company advances its robotaxi rollout 7, while Ouster’s Pentagon approval boosts its prospects in defense tech 8. In crypto, stablecoin supply has surpassed $250B, supported by Tron inflows and the launch of a new Trump-backed USD1 stablecoin, signaling ongoing institutional and retail interest in digital assets 18.

Geopolitical tensions remain a background risk, with Iran threatening U.S. bases 4 and Russia offering to mediate on Iran’s nuclear material 9. Traders should monitor for any escalation, as well as further trade headlines and Treasury auction results, for near-term market direction.