Highlights

• US job openings fell to 7.19 million in March (lowest since 2020), weekly jobless claims rose to 241,000, and layoffs remain elevated, signaling further labor market softening1.
• Trump’s global tariffs narrowly survived a 49-49 Senate vote; US GDP contracted 0.3% in Q1, the first decline in three years, raising recession and inflation concerns2.
• McDonald’s missed revenue estimates as US same-store sales dropped 3.6%—the steepest decline since 2020—amid consumer caution and higher prices5.
• Eli Lilly beat Q1 earnings expectations on surging weight-loss drug sales but cut full-year profit guidance due to a $1.57B cancer deal charge; shares fell 5% pre-market7.
• Mastercard topped Q1 estimates with 14% revenue growth and strong payment volume, affirming robust consumer spending; shares likely to outperform peers6.
• Tesla shares fell 4% after reports of a board-led CEO succession search, though the company’s chair publicly denied any active search amid concerns over Musk’s focus and sales decline34.
• Harley-Davidson withdrew its 2025 outlook citing tariff and economic uncertainty, despite an earnings beat; CEO faces a proxy fight and the company is pulling back from Europe8.
• US-Iran tensions escalate: US warns of consequences for Iran’s support to Houthis, deploys B-2 bombers and carriers; IAEA warns of Iran’s growing uranium stockpile, nuclear deal remains elusive911.
• Israel to expand Gaza operations, call up reservists amid fuel crisis and ICC warrant; Netanyahu discusses possible Lebanon ground operation with Trump administration1018.
• Bank of Japan held rates at 0.5%, cut growth/inflation forecasts, citing uncertainty from US tariffs and global trade tensions15.
• Morgan Stanley plans to offer crypto trading to 5.2M E*Trade clients as soon as 2026; 21Shares files for a spot SUI ETF, lifting SUI token 4%1219.
• Visa and Mastercard launch AI-powered agent shopping/payment pilots, partnering with leading AI firms to enable autonomous transactions20.

Commentary

A confluence of softening US macro data and persistent geopolitical risk is setting a cautious tone for today’s open. The sharp drop in job openings and uptick in jobless claims signal that the labor market is losing momentum, adding to concerns after the first quarterly GDP contraction since 2021. This backdrop, combined with the Senate’s narrow support for Trump’s tariffs, heightens fears of stagflation—slower growth with sticky inflation—particularly as tariff-related uncertainty ripples through both corporate earnings and consumer sentiment12.

Corporate results are bifurcated: Mastercard ’s robust top-line growth and volume metrics suggest resilient consumer spending in payments, contrasting with McDonald’s and Harley-Davidson, where revenue misses and withdrawn outlooks point to growing pressure on discretionary consumption568. Eli Lilly ’s strong drug sales are overshadowed by profit guidance cuts, illustrating how even sector leaders are not immune to macro and deal-related headwinds7. Tesla ’s leadership uncertainty—despite board denials—adds another layer of volatility to the mega-cap tech/EV space34.

Geopolitics remain front and center. The US is ramping up military assets in the Middle East amid warnings to Iran and a worsening Israel-Gaza/Lebanon situation, while the IAEA’s alarm over Iran’s nuclear program keeps the risk premium alive in energy and defense9101118. Yet, oil prices are sliding (Brent near $67), as the IMF slashes MENA growth forecasts on weak demand and reduced US foreign aid, potentially capping further commodity upside unless conflict escalates sharply17.

In rates and FX, the BOJ’s dovish hold and downward revisions reflect how US trade policy is dampening global growth prospects, likely keeping the yen soft and supporting the dollar15. Equities may see defensive rotation, with investors favoring payments, healthcare, and select tech (AI/crypto themes) over cyclicals and consumer names. Crypto assets could see incremental flows after Morgan Stanley’s and 21Shares’ moves, as institutional and retail access expands1219.

Traders should watch for further labor data weakness, tariff headlines, and any escalation in Middle East conflict for direction. Equity volatility could rise, especially in consumer, industrial, and mega-cap tech names. Defensive positioning and event-driven trades around payments, crypto, and defense may outperform in the near term.