Highlights

• • Alphabet Inc Q1 profit surged 46% to $34.5B on $90.2B revenue, beating estimates; $70B buyback approved, shares up 6% post-market, boosting tech sector sentiment 1.
• • Intel Corp beat Q1 expectations but issued weak Q2 guidance, sending shares down 6% after hours amid margin and demand concerns 6.
• • Southwest Airlines posted a $149M Q1 loss, withdrew 2025–26 outlook, cut flights and jobs; CEO declared an “industry recession” as major US airlines revise guidance on weak leisure travel 7.
• • NYSE triggered the rare Zweig Breadth Thrust indicator, historically signaling strong S&P 500 gains; growth stocks leading the charge 10.
• • Gold surged past $3,500/oz (+31% YTD), driven by Trump’s tariff policies, global uncertainty, and a weakening USD (DXY -10% in 3 months); strong central bank and ETF demand, especially in China 5.
• • PBOC injected a net 500B yuan ($82B) into China’s banking system to counter US tariffs, marking the largest liquidity move since Dec 2023 3.
• • Trump administration claims US-China trade talks resumed despite Beijing’s denial; tariff tensions persist with 145% US tariffs on Chinese goods 2.
• • Fed withdrew crypto/stablecoin guidance, easing bank restrictions and aligning with FDIC/OCC; banks can now engage in digital assets under standard supervision 4.
• • Citigroup forecasts stablecoin market could reach $0.5T–$3.7T by 2030, mostly USD-denominated; stablecoin issuers may become major US Treasury holders 12.
• • Bitcoin volatility now below S&P/Nasdaq; Bloomberg, BlackRock note growing corporate and central bank interest in BTC as a treasury asset 15.
• • US to offer Saudi Arabia $100B+ arms deal (Lockheed Martin Corp. , RTX Corporation , Boeing Company , General Atomics), supporting defense sector; ties to Abraham Accords and Middle East security 8.
• • Trump signs order to accelerate deep-sea mining for critical minerals, targeting 1B tons over 10 years, 100,000 jobs, and $300B GDP boost; environmental concerns raised 13.
• • Russia signals readiness for Ukraine deal as US and Trump administration move talks forward; NATO chief urges >3% GDP defense spending, doubts Putin’s peace intentions 149.
• • Merck KGaA nears $3.5B acquisition of US rare disease/cancer biotech SpringWorks; SpringWorks shares up 8%+ on deal news 11.

Commentary

Tech earnings dominated the after-hours session, with Alphabet Inc ’s blowout quarter and massive buyback program propelling not just its own shares but also lifting sentiment across the broader tech sector 1. In contrast, Intel Corp ’s cautious Q2 guidance and margin pressures highlight ongoing challenges in hardware and semiconductors, tempering the sector’s overall exuberance 6. The rare Zweig Breadth Thrust signal from the NYSE adds a bullish technical backdrop, historically preceding strong S&P 500 gains and likely to embolden momentum and growth investors in the near term 10.

Macro headwinds remain prominent. Gold’s explosive rally to $3,500/oz, the weakening US dollar, and China’s record gold ETF inflows all point to persistent risk aversion and hedging against policy uncertainty 5. Trump’s aggressive tariff stance and ambiguous signals on US-China trade talks—contradicted by Beijing—continue to inject volatility into global markets 2. China’s central bank responded with its largest liquidity injection in over a year, aiming to cushion the domestic economy from external shocks 3. These crosscurrents are likely to keep commodity and currency markets volatile, with gold and safe-haven flows in focus 5.

In fixed income and digital assets, the Fed’s rollback of restrictive crypto guidance marks a significant policy shift, potentially catalyzing further institutional adoption of stablecoins and digital assets 4. Citigroup’s bullish stablecoin forecast and BlackRock’s commentary on central bank Bitcoin interest underscore a growing institutional pivot toward blockchain-based assets, especially as corporate treasuries seek alternatives amid dollar weakness and regulatory clarity improves 1215.

Sector rotation is evident in equities: while tech and select healthcare names (e.g., SpringWorks on M&A news) are in favor 11, cyclical and consumer-facing sectors are under pressure. Airlines are flashing recession signals, with Southwest and peers slashing guidance and capacity amid collapsing leisure demand 7. Defense stocks may see renewed interest on the back of a $100B+ US-Saudi arms deal and NATO’s push for higher defense spending, as geopolitical risk premiums remain elevated 89.

Traders should watch for follow-through on the Zweig Breadth Thrust in US equities 10, rotation into gold and digital assets as macro hedges 515, and sector-specific moves in defense, tech, and airlines. Macro data and further policy signals from both the Fed and the Trump administration will be critical in shaping risk appetite and cross-asset correlations as the market digests a complex, fast-moving global backdrop.