TL;DR

U.S.–China extend tariff truce; Nikkei hits record; RBA cuts rates; OPEC lifts 2026 oil demand.

Highlights

• U.S. and China extend tariff truce for 90 days; China lifts export controls on 12 U.S. firms and delays action on 16 others111.
• U.S. allows Nvidia and AMD to resume AI chip sales to China with a 15% revenue share to Washington; China pressures domestic firms to reduce H20 chip orders27.
• Nikkei 225 hits record 42,718 as trade tensions ease; tech and exporters lead gains, yen remains weak5.
• RBA cuts cash rate to 3.60%, signals further easing if inflation and labor market trends persist; downgrades 2025 GDP outlook3.
• Hong Kong to delist China Evergrande shares on August 25 following $45B in debt claims4.
• OPEC raises 2026 oil demand forecast, trims non-OPEC supply outlook; U.S. tight oil output now seen declining6.
• Trump doubles tariffs on Indian imports to 50% over Russian oil purchases; India’s inflation drops to 1.55%, an eight-year low1014.
• China imposes 75.8% deposit on Canadian pea starch amid anti-dumping probe; temporary duties also hit rapeseed and butyl rubber from Canada, Japan, and India12.
• Citigroup under scrutiny for handling $1B for trust linked to sanctioned Russian oligarch; EU prepares 19th sanctions package on Russia89.
• U.S. warns UN of China’s influence over Panama Canal operations, raising infrastructure and security concerns15.
• Ethereum ETFs post record $1B daily inflow; Fundamental Global discloses $200M direct ETH purchase17.
• Japan’s 10-year government bond sees first no-trade day since 2023 amid thin liquidity19.

Commentary

The 90-day extension of the U.S.–China tariff truce, combined with China’s partial rollback of export controls on U.S. firms, has provided a tangible boost to risk sentiment in Asia111. Japanese equities responded sharply, with the Nikkei 225 setting new records as exporters and tech names benefited from both the trade reprieve and a persistently weak yen5. The move offers supply chain stability in the near term, but the underlying issues between Washington and Beijing remain unresolved.

In technology, U.S. authorities have permitted Nvidia and AMD to resume certain AI chip sales to China, subject to a 15% revenue share with the U.S. government2. However, Chinese regulators are pressuring major tech firms to limit purchases of U.S. chips, steering demand toward domestic alternatives7. This dynamic could weigh on U.S. chipmaker margins and signals continued fragmentation in global tech supply chains.

Central bank policy remains in focus. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate cut and downgraded growth outlook align with the ongoing disinflation trend seen in India, where CPI fell to an eight-year low314. Markets are now pricing in further easing across Asia-Pacific, which could support equities but add downward pressure to regional currencies.

On the commodities front, OPEC’s upward revision to 2026 oil demand and a reduced non-OPEC supply outlook should help underpin crude prices, especially as U.S. tight oil output is set to decline6. Meanwhile, China’s steep anti-dumping measures on Canadian agricultural imports highlight ongoing trade frictions and could disrupt commodity flows12.

Elsewhere, institutional demand for Ethereum is accelerating, with record ETF inflows and direct corporate purchases signaling growing acceptance of crypto among traditional investors17. In fixed income, Japan’s 10-year bond market saw a rare no-trade day, flagging ongoing liquidity fragility as the BOJ steps back from yield-curve control19. Traders should monitor cross-currents from trade policy, central bank actions, and sector-specific developments for near-term opportunities.