Highlights

• BlackRock’s IBIT Bitcoin ETF bought 26,000 BTC ($2.5B) in a week, with daily inflows far outpacing new supply and exchange balances at multi-year lows, signaling a potential supply squeeze 1.
• U.S.–China trade war escalates: U.S. imposes 145% tariffs on Chinese goods and 25% on Japanese autos; China retaliates, global trade contracts, and India faces a $100B deficit from diverted Chinese exports 3.
• Gold surges 27% YTD toward $3,400/oz amid $80B inflows, driven by safe-haven demand, inflation fears, and tariff/geopolitical risk; anticipation builds ahead of the Fed meeting 5.
• Tokenized real-world assets (RWA) market tops $22B, up 10% in 30 days, led by Ethereum and private credit; tokenized U.S. Treasuries see 470% YoY growth 4.
• Swiss inflation falls to zero; SNB signals possible 25bp rate cut in June and readiness for negative rates, with the franc strong and growth outlook softening 8.
• China’s services PMI drops to 50.7 (7-month low) as U.S. tariffs bite; policymakers set to unveil a financial policy package May 7 to stabilize markets 720.
• Nasdaq-listed Freight Technologies to invest $20M in $TRUMP memecoin via convertible notes; stock drops 30% as company seeks MicroStrategy-like role in the token ecosystem 10.
• OpenAI restructures as a Public Benefit Corporation, maintaining nonprofit control amid a $40B funding round; agrees to acquire coding startup Windsurf for ~$3B 616.
• U.S. DOJ seeks Google AdX/DFP ad-tech divestiture; September trial set as Google resists, raising antitrust and digital ad market uncertainty 11.
• Ford and Mattel suspend 2025 guidance, citing Trump tariffs; Ford faces $1.5B EBIT hit, Mattel raises U.S. toy prices and accelerates China exit 13.
• EU to propose full Russian gas import ban by 2027, covering new and existing contracts, with June proposals pending 15.
• U.S. crude oil output seen peaking; Diamondback Energy forecasts 10% rig decline as OPEC+ regains market share and shale capex drops 19.

Commentary

The crypto market faces a confluence of macro and sector-specific catalysts this week. BlackRock’s IBIT ETF continues to absorb Bitcoin at a rate that dwarfs new supply, intensifying the ongoing supply squeeze narrative 1. With exchange balances at multi-year lows and persistent institutional inflows, the spot market is increasingly tight, setting the stage for heightened volatility and potential upside pressure on BTC and correlated crypto assets 1. This dynamic is particularly relevant as safe-haven demand spills over from traditional markets, evidenced by gold ’s explosive rally and record inflows amid global macro uncertainty 5.

Trade tensions are escalating, with the U.S. enacting severe tariffs on China and Japan, prompting retaliatory measures and roiling global supply chains 3. The resulting contraction in trade, job cuts, and business uncertainty are already weighing on major economies, as seen in negative U.S. GDP growth and a sharp slowdown in China’s services sector 37. India’s ballooning trade deficit and the EU’s move to ban Russian gas imports by 2027 further underscore the shifting landscape 315. For crypto, these disruptions could accelerate demand for decentralized and cross-border assets, especially as fiat volatility and inflation fears mount. However, risk-off sentiment and liquidity constraints remain a headwind for risk assets, including altcoins and DeFi tokens.

On the innovation front, the tokenized RWA sector is surging, with Ethereum leading a $22B market that’s rapidly expanding into private credit and tokenized Treasuries 4. This trend is likely to attract further institutional capital and drive on-chain activity, benefiting Layer 1s and DeFi protocols that facilitate RWA adoption 4. Meanwhile, regulatory and cybersecurity risks are in focus: the U.S. DOJ’s push to break up Google ’s ad-tech stack and a global surge in cyberattacks (including election-related DDoS campaigns) highlight the growing intersection of digital infrastructure, privacy, and compliance—issues that DeFi and Web3 projects must navigate carefully 1117.

In the corporate sphere, traditional and crypto-native firms alike are recalibrating. Freight Technologies’ $20M bet on the $TRUMP memecoin, despite a sharp stock drop, signals ongoing convergence between public markets and tokenized assets, albeit with elevated volatility and reputational risks 10. OpenAI’s restructuring and $3B acquisition of Windsurf show continued AI investment momentum, which could spill over into AI-linked crypto narratives 616.

Traders should closely monitor BTC ETF flows, macro data (notably the Fed meeting and China’s policy announcements), and developments in tokenized asset markets. Watch for volatility around U.S. trade policy headlines, further institutional moves into crypto, and any regulatory or cybersecurity shocks. In this environment, liquidity management and sector rotation—especially toward RWAs and blue-chip Layer 1s—remain key tactical considerations.