TL;DR

Trump sets Iran strike deadline; Fed signals fall rate cut; Apple eyes $14B Perplexity AI deal.

Highlights

• Trump sets a two-week deadline to decide on possible U.S. strikes against Iran; U.S. forces reposition in region1.
• U.S. intelligence chief Gabbard says Iran could assemble a nuclear weapon within months if it chooses8.
• U.S. and EU draft contingency plans for Iranian regime collapse and nuclear site security as Khamenei’s health is in question11.
• Trump warns of swift U.S. retaliation for any Iranian attack on American assets7.
• Fed’s Daly signals a fall rate cut is more likely as tariff-driven inflation fears ease; labor market remains a key watchpoint3.
• Trump publicly criticizes Fed Chair Powell, threatens to fire him over high rates2.
• Apple considers a $14B acquisition of Perplexity AI to strengthen its AI and search capabilities4.
• Bloomberg analysts raise odds of SEC approval for Solana, Litecoin, and XRP spot ETFs to 95%6.
• Kroger to close 60 underperforming U.S. stores, books $100M charge, and redirects savings to remodels and capex5.
• Senate parliamentarian blocks GOP efforts to defund CFPB and cut other financial oversight bodies in Trump’s tax-and-spending bill9.
• Japan cancels July 1 defense talks with U.S. after push for higher military spending10.
• Major heat dome to bring record temperatures and power grid risks to the Eastern U.S.14

Commentary

Geopolitical risk remains elevated as the U.S. sets a two-week window for a decision on military action against Iran1. The combination of U.S. intelligence confirming Iran’s technical ability to build a nuclear weapon and active contingency planning by the U.S. and EU underscores the seriousness of the situation811. U.S. forces are repositioning, and Trump has warned of immediate retaliation for any attacks on American assets17. Oil and defense sectors may see increased volatility, while safe-haven flows could support Treasuries and gold if tensions escalate811.

On the monetary policy front, San Francisco Fed President Daly’s comments point to a likely rate cut in the fall rather than July, as inflation concerns from tariffs have subsided and the labor market is closely monitored for further signs of weakness3. However, Trump’s renewed public criticism of Fed Chair Powell and threats to fire him introduce additional uncertainty over the Fed’s independence and policy path, which could impact both the dollar and rates markets2.

In equities, Apple ’s potential $14B bid for Perplexity AI signals a strategic push to shore up its AI and search offerings, possibly as a hedge against regulatory risks to its Google search deal4. This move could have implications for both Apple and Google’s competitive positioning. Meanwhile, Kroger’s planned closure of 60 stores reflects ongoing margin pressures in retail, but the company’s focus on capital investment may help support its longer-term outlook5.

Crypto markets are watching closely as Bloomberg analysts raise the probability of SEC approval for Solana, Litecoin, and XRP spot ETFs to 95%6. Broader ETF access could drive additional flows into digital assets. Separately, the Senate parliamentarian’s ruling blocks several GOP-led efforts to cut funding for financial oversight bodies, maintaining the current regulatory framework for now9.

Finally, the upcoming heat dome across the Eastern U.S. poses risks for utilities and could strain power grids, with potential knock-on effects for consumer and industrial demand14. Traders should monitor headlines for any disruptions or price spikes in regional power and natural gas markets.