TL;DR

Trump doubles India tariffs; Powell signals rate cut, lifting Asian stocks; Ukraine hits Russian refineries.

Highlights

• Trump administration doubles U.S. tariffs on Indian imports to 50%1; Indian rupee near record lows despite Fed rate-cut signals20.
• Swiss Post suspends U.S. shipments following a 39% U.S. tariff on Swiss goods18; Bern seeks tariff relief.
• Fed Chair Powell signals possible September rate cut3; Asian equities rally, Nikkei tops 43,000, CSI 300 near 2022 highs314.
• PBOC sharply strengthens yuan fixing2; China stock turnover hits second-highest ever14.
• Apple moves all iPhone 17 production to India, furthering supply-chain diversification away from China6.
• TSMC removes Chinese equipment from 2nm chip lines due to U.S. export-control risks7.
• Ukraine drone strikes knock 10–15% of Russia’s refining offline5; Druzhba oil flows to Slovakia disrupted but may resume soon8.
• Israel strikes Houthi sites in Yemen4 and Gaza’s Nasser Hospital9; Iran resumes nuclear talks with European powers10.
• Bitcoin drops below $111,000 after large whale sale and ETF outflows13; Ethereum outperforms13.
• Dongfeng Motor surges 69% on parent’s $7.1B take-private and EV spin-off plan15; Turkey to end short-selling ban19.
• UniCredit raises Commerzbank stake to 26%, targeting 29%, signaling European banking consolidation16.
• Vietnam accelerates island-building in the South China Sea11; U.S. and Indonesia launch largest-ever Super Garuda Shield drills12.

Commentary

Markets are responding to a mix of monetary easing signals and rising trade and geopolitical frictions. Powell’s dovish remarks at Jackson Hole have boosted risk appetite in Asia, with the Nikkei and CSI 300 both pushing toward multi-year highs314. However, U.S. protectionism remains in focus: the doubling of tariffs on Indian goods1 and a 39% tariff on Swiss imports18 are weighing on the rupee 20 and prompting operational disruptions, as seen with Swiss Post suspending U.S. shipments18. These moves highlight the risk of further trade retaliation and supply-chain adjustments.

Currency markets are active. The PBOC’s stronger-than-expected yuan fixing has supported CNY and CNH 2, while the rupee remains under pressure despite softer U.S. yields20. Apple ’s full shift of iPhone 17 production to India6 and TSMC ’s removal of Chinese equipment from advanced chip lines7 underline the ongoing realignment of global manufacturing and tech supply chains in response to tariffs and export controls.

Energy and commodities are volatile. Ukraine’s drone campaign has knocked out up to 15% of Russia’s refining capacity5, causing fuel shortages and temporarily halting Druzhba pipeline flows to Slovakia and Hungary8. Gold remains supported by lower U.S. yields and persistent geopolitical risks, including Israeli strikes in Yemen4 and Gaza9, and renewed Iran-EU nuclear talks10.

In crypto, Bitcoin fell sharply below $111,000 after a major whale sale and continued ETF outflows13, while Ethereum saw inflows and record futures open interest13, pointing to a shift in institutional positioning. Equity-specific moves include Dongfeng Motor’s surge on a take-private/EV spin-off plan15 and UniCredit’s steady accumulation of Commerzbank shares16, reflecting ongoing sector consolidation in Europe.

Key risks to monitor: further escalation in trade measures (especially U.S.-India/Switzerland)118, follow-through on Fed policy3, energy supply disruptions58, and any sharp moves in EM or tech-linked currencies as global supply chains continue to shift.