TL;DR

U.S. destroys Iran’s nuclear sites; Trump eyes early Fed Chair change; oil, USD, and gold react.

Highlights

• U.S. intelligence confirms airstrikes destroyed Iran’s three main nuclear enrichment sites; Iran halts cooperation with the IAEA 119.
• Trump signals early Fed Chair succession, driving USD to a three-year low; gold and Treasuries rise 2.
• Global equities steady as Israel-Iran ceasefire pulls oil below $70; OPEC+ faces possible output hike as Russia signals support 36.
• Platinum hits $1,381/oz, a decade high, on supply deficit and strong Chinese demand 5.
• Hong Kong Monetary Authority intervenes to defend HKD/USD peg, buying HK$9.4bn and selling $1.2bn USD 4.
• EU leaders to approve 18th Russia sanctions package; Putin extends ruble gas payment regime for foreign buyers 918.
• North Korea prepares to send more troops and weapons to Russia, deepening military cooperation 7.
• China raises combat readiness after Taiwan’s president reasserts sovereignty; new PLA drills encircle Taiwan 8.
• Shell denies $80bn BP takeover talks amid renewed M&A speculation among oil majors 10.
• Japan rejects U.S. 25% auto tariffs ahead of July deadline, warning of recession risk 11.
• Guotai Junan wins Hong Kong’s first full-scope crypto trading licence, shares surge 120%; Binance to delist five tokens, causing sharp volatility 1416.
• EU opens antitrust probe into Mars’s $36bn Kellanova deal; France leads opposition to EU-Mercosur trade pact 1712.

Commentary

A confluence of geopolitical and monetary signals is shaping global market sentiment. The destruction of Iran’s core nuclear sites by U.S. strikes 1 and Tehran’s subsequent suspension of IAEA cooperation 19 raise the risk of renewed Middle East instability, though a U.S.-brokered Israel-Iran ceasefire has eased immediate oil supply fears 3. Oil prices have retreated below $70, but OPEC+ faces a critical July meeting as Russia indicates willingness to support an output increase 6, adding uncertainty to the supply outlook.

Monetary policy expectations are in flux after President Trump’s public consideration of an early Fed Chair replacement 2. Markets are pricing in a more dovish Fed, reflected in the U.S. dollar’s slide to a three-year low and strength in gold and Treasuries 2. The HKMA’s intervention to defend the Hong Kong dollar peg highlights ongoing FX pressures in Asia 4, while Japan’s pushback against U.S. auto tariffs adds to trade uncertainty in the region 11.

In commodities, platinum ’s rally to decade highs is driven by persistent supply deficits and robust Chinese demand, lifting related equities and ETFs 5. Meanwhile, Guotai Junan’s approval for full-scope crypto trading in Hong Kong has triggered a sharp rally in digital asset equities 14, even as Binance’s token delistings inject volatility into specific coins 16.

Europe remains in focus as the EU prepares new Russia sanctions 9 and opens an antitrust probe into Mars’s Kellanova acquisition 17. France’s resistance to the Mercosur trade deal underscores persistent trade friction within the bloc 12. Separately, North Korea’s deepening military support for Russia 7 and China’s escalation of military readiness around Taiwan 8 reinforce geopolitical tail risks, particularly for defense and regional assets.

Traders should monitor OPEC+ signals 6, Fed succession developments 2, and further escalations in Asia and Eastern Europe 78. FX, precious metals, and selected equities remain sensitive to these cross-currents.