Highlights

• Oil prices saw wild swings, plunging 4% after OPEC+ announced a 411,000 bpd output hike, then rebounding 4% as oversold conditions and U.S. shale peak concerns set in 1.
• Gold surged 2% to $3,400/oz, nearing record highs, as tariff escalation and geopolitical tensions fueled safe-haven demand 10.
• The Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates steady at 4.25%-4.5% on May 7, despite Trump’s public calls for cuts; markets price in an 80% chance of a July cut 5.
• U.S. trade deficit hit a record $140.5B in March as imports surged 4.4% ahead of new Trump tariffs; GDP contracted 0.3% in Q1 7.
• U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent assured no default risk but warned of an August–October deadline for debt ceiling action 4; Treasury auctions saw strong demand, with the Fed making its largest 3-year note purchase since 2021 15.
• Trump administration close to finalizing trade deals with 17 major partners (excluding China), aiming for 80-90% coverage by year-end 8.
• U.S.-Canada relations tense as Trump and PM Carney spar over tariffs and possible USMCA renegotiation; no new deals announced 6.
• Paul Tudor Jones forecasts new S&P 500 lows (target: 4,982) even if tariffs are halved, citing persistent macro headwinds 11.
• Berkshire Hathaway’s cash hoard hit a record $347.7B (31.4% of market cap), signaling Buffett’s defensive stance 13.
• Hims & Hers Health soared up to 25% on earnings and a short squeeze 14, while Palantir dropped over 14% on international growth concerns 17.
• Crypto in focus: House Democrats walked out of a digital assets hearing over Trump’s crypto ventures 9; Solana stablecoin supply hit $13.1B (+154% YTD) 18; Treasury Secretary Bessent rejected a CBDC, endorsed Bitcoin as a store of value 19.
• Trump to halt U.S. bombing of Yemeni Houthis after rebels pledge to end Red Sea attacks 3; Israel escalates strikes in Yemen, disabling Sanaa airport 2.
• EU proposes a 17th Russia sanctions package, targeting shadow fleet vessels and dual-use tech, with some Chinese entities included 16.
• Trump administration to issue executive order accelerating U.S. nuclear power deployment; Oklo stock surged on the news 20.
• Google previewed Gemini 2.5 Pro LLM, topping coding benchmarks ahead of I/O 12.

Commentary

Volatility is the theme as traders digest a barrage of macro, geopolitical, and sector-specific headlines. Oil markets were whipsawed by OPEC+’s surprise production hike, initially sparking a selloff on oversupply fears before a sharp rebound as traders reassessed U.S. shale’s growth prospects 1. This volatility, coupled with ongoing Middle East tensions—highlighted by Israeli strikes in Yemen 2 and shifting U.S. military posture 3—keeps the energy complex on edge. Meanwhile, gold’s rally to $3,400/oz underscores persistent risk aversion, with investors hedging against both geopolitical flare-ups and economic policy uncertainty 10.

Equities remain under pressure, with Paul Tudor Jones’ bearish call and Berkshire Hathaway’s record cash pile reinforcing a cautious tone 1113. The S&P 500’s inability to reclaim recent highs, despite some positive earnings surprises (e.g., Hims & Hers Health 14), reflects deep macro concerns: a record U.S. trade deficit, Q1 GDP contraction 7, and the specter of a drawn-out tariff war 511. The Fed’s expected hold tomorrow 5 and strong demand for Treasuries (aided by direct Fed purchases) 15 are providing some support to fixed income, but the looming debt ceiling deadline (August–October) 4 and mixed economic data keep bond traders alert for signs of stress.

The currency and crypto spaces are equally dynamic. The U.S. dollar faces crosscurrents from safe-haven flows, trade policy uncertainty, and central bank divergence 105. In crypto, political drama is front and center: House Democrats’ walkout over Trump’s crypto dealings signals regulatory risk 9, while Solana’s explosive stablecoin growth 18 and Treasury Secretary Bessent’s anti-CBDC, pro-Bitcoin stance highlight shifting institutional sentiment 19. Traders should watch for further regulatory headlines and capital flows into digital assets, especially as gold and crypto increasingly compete for safe-haven status 1019.

Sector rotation is evident: defensives like gold miners and utilities (buoyed by nuclear power headlines) are in favor, while tech shows mixed performance—Google ’s Gemini 2.5 Pro preview is a bright spot 12, but Palantir ’s double-digit drop on international growth fears is a reminder of valuation risk 17. Energy names may see continued volatility as oil’s direction remains uncertain 1.

Into the close, traders should monitor Treasury auction results 15, Fed commentary 5, and late-breaking trade or geopolitical developments 23681620. With macro headwinds intensifying and cross-asset correlations rising, risk management and tactical positioning are paramount. Watch for further signs of stress in equities and credit, and be alert to opportunities in safe havens and select growth stories.