TL;DR

US jobs miss drives yields lower; tariffs escalate; JPMorgan to accept Bitcoin ETF collateral.

Highlights

• US private payrolls rose just 37,000 in May (ADP), far below forecasts and the weakest since March 2023; wage growth remains firm1.
• US 10-year Treasury yield fell 10 bps to 4.35%—lowest since early May—after the soft jobs data2.
• President Trump renewed calls for immediate Fed rate cuts18 and proposed scrapping the US debt ceiling16; CBO says his tax bill would add $2.4T to federal debt17.
• US to finalize new tariffs on imported aircraft and parts by month-end5; 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum draw criticism from Canada and Mexico, with Mexico threatening countermeasures3.
• China delays Apple and Alibaba ’s AI launches amid US-China trade tensions and tariff threats on tech devices4.
• GlobalFoundries announces $16B US chip investment9; US Commerce Secretary says total chip commitments now exceed $300B and seeks 50% of AI compute to be domestic19.
• European auto suppliers suspend production as China restricts rare earth exports; BMW warns of growing shortages13.
• JPMorgan to accept Bitcoin ETF holdings as collateral for loans; SEC confirms banks will soon custody Bitcoin7.
• US crude inventories fell 4.3M barrels, but gasoline and distillate stocks rose sharply10; Saudi Arabia seeks OPEC+ output hikes, impacting tanker and shipping stocks11.
• Amazon to invest $10B in North Carolina for AI/cloud expansion14; Ford recalls over 1 million vehicles for safety and software defects15.
• USDOT threatens to reclaim $4B from California’s high-speed rail project due to lack of progress and overruns20.
• Reddit sues Anthropic for unauthorized use of its data to train AI models12.

Commentary

The sharp miss in private payrolls (ADP) has shifted market expectations toward a more dovish Fed, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping to a four-week low12. Despite resilient wage growth, the weak jobs print has fueled calls from President Trump and others for immediate rate cuts18. Fiscal policy is also in focus, as the CBO projects Trump’s tax bill would add $2.4 trillion to the national debt17, while he simultaneously advocates scrapping the debt ceiling16—raising questions about future US fiscal discipline.

Trade policy remains a front-burner issue. The US is set to finalize new tariffs on imported aircraft5, on top of recently doubled tariffs on steel and aluminum3. Both Canada and Mexico have pushed back, with Mexico threatening countermeasures if not exempted3. Meanwhile, China’s delay of Apple and Alibaba ’s AI launches4, and ongoing restrictions on rare earth exports13, are already impacting European auto suppliers and could escalate supply chain risks for US tech and industrial firms.

On the corporate front, GlobalFoundries ’ $16B US chip investment9 and the Commerce Secretary’s push for domestic AI compute19 reinforce the trend toward tech supply chain localization. Amazon ’s $10B North Carolina investment14 and Ford ’s large-scale recalls15 are notable for sector-specific flows. In crypto, JPMorgan ’s move to accept Bitcoin ETF holdings as loan collateral, with SEC confirmation of upcoming bank custody, signals further integration of digital assets into mainstream finance7.

Oil markets are digesting a larger-than-expected crude draw10, but surging gasoline and distillate inventories point to soft demand10. Saudi Arabia’s push for OPEC+ output hikes is adding volatility to tanker and shipping stocks11. Lastly, the USDOT’s threat to reclaim $4B from California’s high-speed rail project underscores ongoing scrutiny of public infrastructure spending20.

Traders should monitor rate-sensitive sectors, tech and industrials exposed to tariffs and supply chain disruptions, and crypto-linked equities as institutional adoption advances. Energy and shipping stocks remain in play as OPEC+ dynamics evolve.