TL;DR

US jobless claims rise, Fed cut odds dip ahead of Powell, US-EU announce major trade/energy deal.

Highlights

• US initial jobless claims rose to 235,000 (vs. 225,000 est.); continuing claims hit 1.972 million, highest since Nov. 2021 1.
• Philly Fed manufacturing index missed at –0.3 (vs. 6.5 est.); Standard & Poor's 500 futures edged lower post-data 1.
• Fed September rate cut odds fell below 80% ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech; KC Fed’s Schmid pushed back on near-term easing, citing inflation near 3% 619.
• US Treasury executed a record $4B bond buyback; heavy investor demand for liquidity; strong participation in 20-year and 30-year TIPS auctions at elevated yields 211.
• US 30-year mortgage rate held at 6.58% (10-month low); July existing-home sales up 2%, but overall housing activity remains subdued 1220.
• US and EU announced a trade framework: 15% US tariff ceiling on most EU exports, $750B EU commitment to US energy, and expanded US industrial and AI chip access 4.
• DOJ official called for Fed Chair Powell to remove Governor Cook amid a mortgage probe; no timeline or further details provided 5.
• NHTSA opened an audit into Tesla over delayed Autopilot crash reporting, adding to ongoing federal safety investigations 7.
• Apple raised Apple TV+ monthly price by 30% to $12.99 in the US 8.
• Gilead ’s Kite Pharma to acquire Interius BioTherapeutics for $350M; deal expected to reduce 2025 EPS by $0.23–$0.25 15.
• Coinbase to list Trump-linked USD1 stablecoin; MetaMask announced mUSD stablecoin with Stripe, increasing competition in US stablecoins 1314.
• Chilean peso weakened after Finance Minister Marcel’s resignation; government preparing for cabinet reshuffle 17.

Commentary

Labor market data showed further signs of cooling, with both initial and continuing jobless claims exceeding forecasts and reaching multi-year highs 1. The Philly Fed manufacturing miss added to the narrative of moderating economic momentum 1. Despite this, the market is reassessing the likelihood of a September Fed rate cut, as internal FOMC divisions become more pronounced—KC Fed’s Schmid explicitly cautioned against premature easing, highlighting persistent inflation risks 619. Powell’s Jackson Hole speech will be closely watched for signals on the policy path, with rate-cut odds now below 80% 6.

Treasury markets reflected strong demand for liquidity, as evidenced by a record $4B buyback and robust participation in long-duration auctions at elevated yields 211. Investors appear comfortable locking in current yields, even as inflation concerns linger. The steady 30-year mortgage rate at 6.58% has yet to meaningfully revive housing demand, with July’s modest rebound in existing-home sales offset by weak mortgage application data and subdued homebuilder sentiment 1220.

On the policy and regulatory front, the new US-EU trade framework could benefit select US industrials, energy, and tech, given the EU’s $750B energy commitment and expanded access to US AI chips 4. However, unresolved tariff issues in steel, aluminum, and digital services remain. The DOJ’s public call for the removal of Fed Governor Cook introduces uncertainty around Fed Board stability 5, while the NHTSA’s Tesla probe continues to weigh on the auto sector 7.

In corporate and crypto news, Apple ’s streaming price hike points to margin management amid competitive pressures 8, and Gilead ’s Kite acquisition signals continued interest in cell therapy, though with a near-term EPS impact 15. The stablecoin space is seeing increased competition, with Coinbase and MetaMask both moving to expand their US dollar-backed offerings 1314.

Traders should monitor Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks, Treasury yield movements, and any late-breaking regulatory headlines for potential cross-asset volatility into the close.