TL;DR

U.S. issues Iran ultimatum; Israel strikes Tehran; Fed to hold rates, markets eye Powell’s guidance.

Highlights

• U.S. gives Iran 24–48 hours to revive nuclear talks or face possible military action; Trump reviews options1.
• Israel launches major airstrikes on Tehran’s nuclear and missile sites; Iran’s Khamenei warns of “irreparable consequences” if attacked23.
• Israel’s missile defense stocks could be depleted in 10–12 days without urgent U.S. resupply17.
• Iran’s ex-economy minister calls for a 100-day ban on unapproved oil/LNG shipments via Strait of Hormuz; no official confirmation4.
• Predatory Sparrow claims cyberattacks on Iran’s Bank Sepah and Nobitex crypto exchange, disrupting financial infrastructure14.
• Gold up 30% YTD, trading near $3,386/oz, leading global safe-haven flows8.
• Fed expected to hold rates at 4.25%–4.50%; markets await Powell’s guidance amid weak retail sales and sticky inflation7.
• U.S. regulators propose up to 1.5-point cut to big bank leverage buffer to boost Treasury market liquidity6.
• U.S. Senate passes first standalone crypto bill (GENIUS Act), setting federal stablecoin rules; heads to House9.
• China’s rare-earth exports plunge 61% YoY; supply concerns for tech/EV sectors mount11.
• Bitmain, Canaan , MicroBT shift bitcoin-miner production to U.S. to avoid tariffs18.
• Airbus raises dividend payout target to up to 50% of net income, reaffirms €7B 2025 EBIT goal20.

Commentary

Middle East risk is front and center as the U.S. sets a 24–48 hour deadline for Iran to reengage in nuclear talks, with military options under review1. Israel ’s airstrikes on Tehran’s nuclear and missile facilities mark a significant escalation2, while Iran’s leadership warns of severe, potentially “irreparable” consequences if further attacked3. The depletion of Israel’s missile defense stocks—unless the U.S. provides rapid resupply—adds urgency and could increase the risk of broader conflict17. The threat of a 100-day ban on unapproved oil and LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, though not officially confirmed, is being closely watched by energy markets for any sign of disruption to global flows4.

Cyber risk is also rising, with the Predatory Sparrow group claiming destructive attacks on Iran’s banking and crypto infrastructure, including Nobitex, Iran’s largest cryptocurrency exchange14. These incidents highlight the vulnerability of regional financial systems and add another layer of uncertainty for risk assets.

Safe-haven demand remains strong: gold is up 30% year-to-date and trading near record highs, reflecting investor caution amid geopolitical and macroeconomic headwinds8. U.S. Treasurys may also see inflows, but today’s FOMC decision is key. The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady; attention will focus on Powell’s tone and any signals on the timing of future cuts, especially after weak retail sales and persistent inflation7.

U.S. financials could benefit from the proposed easing of the leverage buffer, which may improve Treasury market liquidity and risk appetite6. Crypto markets are in focus as the Senate passes the GENIUS Act, providing regulatory clarity for stablecoins and setting the stage for potential institutional inflows9. Meanwhile, China’s rare-earth export plunge is a concern for tech and EV supply chains11, and large bitcoin-miner manufacturers such as Canaan are shifting production to the U.S. to avoid tariffs, underscoring ongoing trade and supply chain adjustments18.

Equity rotation into defense, energy, and gold miners is likely to continue, while Airbus ’s increased dividend target and reaffirmed earnings outlook may support European industrial sentiment20. Traders should remain alert for headlines out of the Middle East, Fed communications, and any signs of energy market disruption.