TL;DR

U.S. strikes hit Iran nuclear sites; Hormuz closure threat spikes oil; global markets turn risk-off.

Highlights

• U.S. B-2 bombers struck Iran’s Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan nuclear sites in the largest U.S. stealth raid to date; President Trump warned of further action if Iran retaliates1.
• Iran’s parliament backed closure of the Strait of Hormuz in response, threatening a chokepoint for ~20% of global oil trade; final decision rests with Iran’s Supreme National Security Council2.
• Brent crude spiked above $81, with officials warning a Hormuz shutdown could send oil to $200–$300/bbl; tanker rates surged and supertankers reversed course35.
• Global equities fell: Dow , S&P 500 , and Nasdaq futures declined; Asian stocks opened lower; USD and gold firmed4.
• Bitcoin dropped below $100,000 on Iran tensions before rebounding; over $1B in crypto liquidations occurred13.
• China, Russia, and Pakistan condemned the U.S. strikes at the UN and called for a ceasefire; China criticized U.S. credibility and evacuated citizens from Iran6.
• Iran’s military leadership declared a “free hand” to retaliate against U.S. and Israeli interests; Israel launched new airstrikes on Tehran after Iranian missile attacks89.
• U.S. issued a rare worldwide caution for citizens; Japan’s megabanks began evacuating staff from the Middle East719.
• NATO set a new defense spending target of 5% of GDP by 2035, aiming to deter Russia and reassure the U.S.15.
• China expanded coast-guard and militia patrols in the South China Sea, raising regional maritime risk16.
• Seazen Group issued a $300M USD bond amid China’s deepening property crisis, with home prices and land sales falling18.
• Hungary and Slovakia blocked the EU’s 18th Russia sanctions package, citing energy security concerns14.

Commentary

The U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities mark a significant escalation in Middle East tensions, with immediate market consequences1. Iran’s parliamentary move to back closure of the Strait of Hormuz—pending final approval—has already disrupted shipping patterns, sent oil prices sharply higher, and driven up tanker freight rates25. The risk of a full closure remains the key variable for energy markets, with officials warning of extreme price spikes and broader economic fallout if crude flows are halted3.

Risk aversion is evident across asset classes. Global equities are under pressure, particularly in Asia, while defensive flows are supporting the U.S. dollar and gold 4. Crypto assets, often seen as alternative risk hedges, saw sharp liquidations and volatility as traders unwound positions in response to the geopolitical shock13. Equity futures and Asian markets are likely to remain volatile until there is clarity on Iran’s next steps and the potential for further U.S. or Israeli military action12.

Geopolitical risk is broadening. China and Russia’s condemnation of the U.S. strikes at the UN, coupled with China’s evacuation of citizens from Iran and expanded maritime patrols in the South China Sea, add to the global risk premium616. NATO’s new 5% defense spending target signals a longer-term shift in European security priorities, while Hungary and Slovakia’s block on further EU Russia sanctions exposes persistent divisions over energy policy1514.

In China, Seazen’s successful offshore bond issue stands out amid ongoing property sector distress, but falling home prices and weak land sales highlight continued structural challenges18. On the operational front, global firms—including Japan’s megabanks—are reassessing their Middle East exposure, reflecting heightened security and business continuity risks19.

Traders should closely monitor developments around the Strait of Hormuz, potential Iranian retaliation, and further regional escalation28. Energy, shipping, and defense sectors remain in focus, with cross-asset volatility likely elevated in the near term35.