TL;DR

Fed signals July rate cut possible; S&P 500, Bitcoin hit records; Trump’s Brazil tariff lifts coffee.

Highlights

• Fed Governor Waller signals policy may be "too tight," raising odds of a July rate cut if inflation data allow 1.
• US initial jobless claims fall to 227,000, a two-month low, indicating labor market resilience 2.
• S&P 500 , Nasdaq, and Bitcoin hit new all-time highs; Trump urges rapid Fed rate cuts 67.
• Bitcoin tops $113,000 as institutional and corporate demand rises; Ether also rallies 618.
• Trump proposes 50% tariff on all Brazilian imports, driving coffee futures up 3%+; Brazil vows retaliation 8.
• Delta Air Lines beats Q2 estimates, restores 2025 profit guidance; airline stocks surge (Delta +12%) 12.
• MP Materials jumps 50% after Pentagon takes 15% stake in $400M rare-earth supply chain deal 9.
• AWS unveils in-house data center cooling, sending Vertiv down 10% on supplier risk 10.
• Geopolitical risks: Israel warns of further strikes on Iran 4; Houthis escalate Red Sea shipping attacks 5; Germany, China press Iran to curb Houthi raids 19.
• European Commission to propose floating Russian oil price cap; Russia’s LNG exports to EU fall 22% YoY 3.
• Conagra cuts profit outlook on tariffs and cost inflation; shares drop 5% 13.
• FDA grants full approval to Moderna ’s Spikevax for at-risk children; shares up ~2% 14.

Commentary

The Fed is back in focus after Governor Waller’s remarks suggested current policy may be restrictive, with a July rate cut possible if inflation data cooperate 1. This dovish tilt, combined with jobless claims at a two-month low 2, is keeping rate cut expectations alive without signaling imminent labor market weakness. Markets are responding with renewed risk appetite, as both equities and crypto set fresh records 67. President Trump’s public call for rapid Fed easing adds to the policy debate 7, but the central bank continues to emphasize data dependence 1.

Commodities and consumer stocks are reacting to new trade tensions. Trump’s proposed 50% tariff on Brazilian imports has already pushed coffee futures higher and could fuel further cost inflation for US consumers, especially if Brazil retaliates 8. Packaged-foods companies like Conagra are flagging margin pressure from tariffs and rising input costs, with the stock underperforming on guidance cuts 13.

In corporate news, Delta ’s earnings beat and restored guidance have sparked a sharp rally in airline stocks, signaling some stabilization in travel demand despite ongoing tariff and cost headwinds 12. Meanwhile, the Pentagon’s $400 million investment in MP Materials marks a significant move to secure US rare-earth supply chains, sending the stock up 50% 9. In tech, AWS ’s in-house cooling solution has pressured Vertiv shares, highlighting the risk to specialized suppliers when major customers pursue vertical integration 10.

Geopolitical risks remain elevated. Tensions in the Middle East persist, with Israel warning of further strikes on Iran 4 and the Houthis escalating attacks on Red Sea shipping 5. The European Commission’s plan for a floating Russian oil price cap and falling Russian LNG exports to the EU add further uncertainty to energy markets 3. These developments could sustain volatility in energy and shipping sectors 5.

Traders should monitor late-session moves tied to rate cut expectations, commodity swings from tariff headlines, and any updates on Middle East or energy policy developments.