Highlights

• Trump retreats from sweeping reciprocal tariffs after a sharp Treasury selloff, with bond vigilantes driving yields higher; crypto market cap surpasses $3 trillion as Fed Chair Powell’s job appears secure 1.
• U.S. dollar index posts a 9% YTD decline—the worst first 100 days for a presidency since Nixon—amid heavy foreign selling of U.S. assets, especially by Europeans ($63B in equities sold since March) 109.
• Gold surges past $3,500/oz, with central banks (notably China) and institutional investors shifting from Treasuries to gold and Bitcoin - United States Dollar ; Bitcoin - United States Dollar also rallies, supported by $3.06B in U.S. ETF inflows in six days 1116.
• Fed lifts pre-approval rules for banks on crypto activities, allowing full Bitcoin - United States Dollar services; tokenized U.S. Treasuries market expands, led by Blackrock, Inc. , Franklin Templeton, and Ondo Finance 1517.
• U.S. stock market posts a strong week (S&P 500 +4.6%, Nasdaq +6.7%) on trade optimism and robust tech earnings; volatility (VIX) drops below 25, signaling reduced market stress 1918.
• Alphabet (Google) beats Q1 estimates with $90.2B revenue, $34.5B profit, and a $70B buyback; stock rises 5% on cloud/AI growth despite regulatory risks 5.
• Intel falls 7.4% pre-market on tariff concerns, weak outlook, and AI competition from Huawei’s upcoming 910C chip; sector faces broader uncertainty 6.
• Tesla, Inc. Common Stock surges 24% as U.S. eases autonomous vehicle rules, enabling faster AV innovation; California proposes heavy-duty truck testing 819.
• Shein and Temu hike U.S. prices ahead of 120% Trump tariffs effective May 2, ending the de minimis exemption and signaling higher consumer goods inflation 13.
• Trump administration accelerates oil, gas, and deep-sea mining approvals using emergency powers, aiming to boost Gulf output by 100K bpd; China protests U.S. deep-sea mining order 1214.
• Geopolitical risks escalate: U.S. launches 800+ airstrikes on Yemen’s Houthis (with alleged Chinese satellite support), deadly blast at Iran’s Bandar Abbas port disrupts trade, and Russia claims full control of Kursk with North Korean involvement 423.
• EU fines Apple ($570M) and Meta ($228M) under the Digital Markets Act, but penalties are lighter than expected, raising U.S. concerns over regulatory pressure on Big Tech 7.

Commentary

Markets enter the week with a risk-on tone, buoyed by the Trump administration’s retreat from aggressive tariffs after a bond market revolt pushed Treasury yields higher 1. The rapid reversal in trade policy, combined with the Fed’s decision to ease crypto restrictions for banks, has stabilized risk sentiment and fueled a broad rally in equities—especially in tech and crypto 1519. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq’s outsized weekly gains, alongside a sharp drop in the VIX, suggest traders are recalibrating for a more constructive risk environment, at least in the short term 1819.

However, beneath the surface, cracks are emerging in the U.S. dollar and global capital flows. The dollar index’s 9% YTD slide, the worst start to a presidency since Nixon, reflects heavy foreign selling of U.S. assets, particularly by European investors 109. This exodus is mirrored by a dramatic shift among central banks and institutional allocators out of Treasuries and into gold and Bitcoin - United States Dollar , driving gold to new highs above $3,500 and pushing the crypto market cap past $3 trillion 111. The surge in Bitcoin - United States Dollar ETF inflows and the rapid expansion of tokenized Treasury products highlight growing demand for alternative stores of value amid geopolitical and fiscal uncertainty 1617.

Commodities and energy remain in focus as the Trump administration accelerates fossil fuel and mining approvals, seeking to offset the negative impact of tariff volatility on the sector 1214. While the policy aims to boost domestic output, it has drawn swift protests from China and environmental groups, adding another layer of geopolitical risk 14. Meanwhile, the price hikes from Shein and Temu foreshadow a wave of consumer goods inflation as new tariffs take effect, potentially complicating the Fed’s inflation outlook and pressuring margins in retail and e-commerce 13.

Geopolitical tensions remain a key risk variable. U.S. airstrikes in Yemen, the deadly Iranian port blast, and Russia’s battlefield claims (with North Korean support) all threaten to disrupt trade routes and commodity flows, particularly in energy and shipping 423. The U.S.-China tech rivalry intensifies, with Huawei’s AI chip launch and EU regulatory actions against Big Tech adding to sector volatility 67.

Traders should watch for follow-through on the equity rally, but remain alert to cross-asset volatility driven by ongoing dollar weakness, foreign outflows, and commodity price swings 109. Monitor Treasury yields for signs of renewed stress, and keep an eye on gold, Bitcoin - United States Dollar , and energy markets for further safe-haven flows or supply shocks 1116. Tech remains a leadership group, but sector rotation and regulatory headwinds could spark sharp moves. Stay nimble.